To keep you updated I’ve moved my stop to BE on EUR/NZD, let’s see if it makes the last 1% to reach the profit target.
Enough talk anyway 🙂 Let’s dive in
I’ll be looking for a potential long on euro dollar for a counter zone play, we have a clear monthly stack there that I’m happy with
I’ve got pound swiss for a potential short for this week – you could quite easily have drawn a larger zone and already taken a trade so it’s worth keeping on your watch
Pound Yen is quite interesting we’re currently forming a double top on the daily and have a clear retest of a trend line break. We’ve reached the zone and formed a little U shape on the 4hour so let’s wait and see what happens.
There’s also a clear weekly stack that I’ll be happy to use 🙂
Kiwi Swiss is also interesting & worth eyeing up 🙂 This trendline break is a little iffier but remains valid in my eyes.
Good morning folks, I hope all is well!! Sorry I didn’t update you folks yesterday, had a 7hour drive ahead of me so figured I’d focus on myself instead of providing you with my watchlist.
I didn’t have anything until the markets moved anyway 🙂
Took AUD/NZD for a short position at the daily close last night.
We reached a clear area (a trend line break level) that is nicely stacked with a weekly.
Clear area (That I had initially missed, I only had the higher level) with an extremely clear evening star so all in all, I was happy to execute once the spread calmed down.
Swiss Yen is a rather complicated area of interest however, I’m interested.
What we are able to witness here is a third counter zone, so yes, it’s not the cleanest area of reversal, however it remains valid in my eyes. There’s also a potential weekly stack so all is well on that side of things, on the 4hour we can observe a slight deceleration – let’s see what happens!
Euro Kiwi is a potential on my watchlist, its a clear counter zone, if we use two weekly candles we can say it has a valid weekly stack and on the 4hour well, it’s interesting to look at.
We did break a strong descending trend line so it’ll be interesting to see if this is a big reversal or just a larger correction before we see another leg lower.
Pound Dollar is on my watch for a potential long opportunity, we have a clear counter zone at this level, however we did just witness a break of the ascending trend line – so was this a bear trap? Get a lot of people to enter sell positions before another leg higher?
Time will tell, one thing is for sure, I’ll keep my eyes on it!
Dollar Swiss is also on my watchlist, it’s rather funny, I was talking about the CHF quite a lot over this weekend since I was with people who live in France but work in Geneva (and get paid in CHF).
This pair is of value to me since we are approaching an area of supply, a clear counter zone, last time we approached it we saw a clear reversal but it didn’t quite reach it so I didn’t take it, will it reach it this time? If it does it’ll give us quite a pretty double top.
Was listening to “The art of resilience” by Ross Edgeley on my 7hour drive, he said the following quote, and it really strung a chord with me so here it is:
Starting to spend the first two hours of my word standing up rather than sitting, will see how that feels at the end of the week, so far all I have to say is damn, I’m surprised I can feel it so much!
To update you with my trades:
CAD/CHF reached its profit target – feels bittersweet, at the time I was in a drawdown hole close to my stop out limit on my 5ers account so I was forced to secure some profit on my 4hour scale in – which turned out to be around 0.3% rather than letting it play out.
Glad I stuck to my trading plan with this original position.
That trade brought me back into profit for the year so there’s only one way forward, and that’s to keep increasing my P&L for the year
To remain on track I also have to mention the fact that I took two positions on AUD/NZD yesterday.
The original position was taken after a clear arrow entry which is part of my rules – the scale in, which was taken out was placed once we had two clear hourly candles away from the 50EMA that were forming a sort of correction above the break of an ascending channel.
Anyway, enough talk about the past, lets look forward to what’s on my watchlist
Yes, I am now looking to take a potential short on Canadian Swiss for a potential reversal, we played the move higher, let’s see if we see a rejection from this level to head lower.
That being said, we are already quite high in the area of supply so it’ll be interesting to see what happens – a double top formation would make me happy to enter a position, otherwise, I’ll be more careful.
Canadian Yen is my second CAD pair on watch for a potential short. On this one we haven’t reached the area of supply (yet) however I believe it’s a rather clear one as well.
Oh and on both CAD/JPY and CAD/CHF we have a clear monthly stack so that’s okay with me
Now that Euro Aussie has moved away from the area it was yesterday I can finally say I’m glad I didn’t execute the trade otherwise I’d be using a hammer and breaking my right hand bones for breaking my trading plan 😀
We are seeing the price move towards the area of demand I highlighted yesterday, we just have to remain patient and see what happens.
Pound Swiss is also worth mentioning since its the second CHF pair that has reached an area of supply. This zone may not be the prettiest since it’s more a question of structure break rather than a trend line break – even tho you could also mention the fact that it’s a counter zone – hence valid.
This area remains where the push lower really started to gain a lot of traction, and I must say, we are starting to see that the current move higher is a bit over-extended so a pull back wouldn’t surprise a single one of us, would it?
Once again, there’s a clear monthly stack 🙂
Kiwi Yen is also within an area of supply, so let’s wait and see what happens.
We previously talked about the cons of this area if I remember correctly so I’m waiting for a clear entry.
Dollar Canadian is the last one I’ll talk about (there’s also USD/SGD but I can’t trade it so go and look at it) we have now reached the area of demand, I’ll be patiently waiting to see a clear entry before executing a trade long.
If you’re still here… Here’s good news
While I’m here, rather than talk about the book I’m currently reading (Fit Soul) I’ll share one screenshot of the strategy I’m currently developing
I’m quite happy it looks rather promising if I take the SDS away from my list the average return does improve as does the strike rate.
Hopefully I’ll be able to start trading it live soon.
I just want to take the time to go through a bit more data, potentially collect one more year of data to get more of a feeling for it.
Once I start live trading it, I may share a few things from it as I do for my current style.
P.S. hope you enjoyed this watch, it’s a rather long one 🙂
Before I jump into my watchlist, I’m just going to mention the fact that I did not take EUR/AUD this morning since it spent over 24hours in the same sideways price action. It remains on my watchlist for a long, however, I am not in a position.
Enough talk, let’s dive in.
Aussie Kiwi remains on my watch for today, while we are within one area of supply, there is another one just above so I wouldn’t be surprised if we reached that one and broke the previous high to create some liquidity before a potential reversal
As mentioned there was a script opportunity for a long on the previous 4hour close, I did not execute it due to the fact the price had spent over 24hours in that zone. Hence I’ll be waiting for the price to drop to the next area of demand before taking a long opportunity.
Kiwi Yen remains on my watchlist, it still needs to go a little higher in order to reach the area of supply, as mentioned yesterday I’m not the biggest fan of the daily formation however the weekly is gorgeous in by itself so all in all I’ll be executing the trade if a script entry is provided in that area
USD to Canadian is struggling to break its previous lows, last time we were in a “different world” back in 2018, however if it does break to the downside, it’ll be interesting to see how it responds to the area of demand since it will be just below a clear double bottom which will provide institutions enough liquidity to push the market higher if they decide so.
While I can’t trade Dollar Singapore I can still talk about it for those who can 🙂 Such a selfless individual eh!
We are starting to form a double bottom formation which fits perfectly with an area of demand – let’s see what happens once we reach that area.
That’s it for my daily watch for today 🙂
I do have one thing to say, and it’s probably a mistake to mention it at the end of this post – it should rather be at the top…
I used to forecast price action and say that the price was going to start forming a wedge pattern to reach X.XXXX and then reverse. Otherwise we’d see a double top on the 1hour chart before taking a short.
While being that detailed was great, it was also quite problematic since it lead me to believe I could exactly forecast what the market was going to do next.
The truth is, no one knows exactly where the market is going to next, all we know is where we believe the market is the most likely to go towards.
Aim to understand areas where price will likely change directions. Don’t try to forecast how the price gets there, try to forecast where the price will reverse.
Once you start to get good at finding reversal spots you’ll be able to trade continuations with a lot more confidence.
Don’t forget the path of least resistance!
Sorry got stuck into the twitter rabbit hole and forgot to get the links I wanted 🙂
Good morning folks, hope you all enjoyed your weekend and were able to stock up some vitamin D 🙂
I honestly don’t have much on watch for today so it seems like it’ll be more a day of research into an additional strategy rather than a day filled with execution.
Pound Yen is the only pair that I am slightly interested in for today, that being said, I would greatly prefer if it reached the higher zone before forming a reversal, so I guess I’ll just have to wait and see if something happens here 🙂
Came accross the fact that Elon did an interview on Clubhouse so it’s worth the listen!
Good morning folks! Was a busy day yesterday a lot of trades taken! Let’s jump straight into their review.
I took a 4hour scale in on top of my original position, thankfully this additional entry has a stop sizing more normal (close to 40 pips). I had an order placed once we spend 8hours away form the 4hour 50EMA. It got triggered and then started to reverse.
I shall be manually managing this position as per my plan (trailing below lows once a high is broken)
An entry was also presented on Cad Yen for a potential short, I executed it. The zone of supply isn’t the nicest but it’s valid so we’ll see what happens.
I executed the short from the first zone I had mentioned in my watchlist, it’s currently rejecting an ascending phase line, I believe that if we break it (which I hope we do) we’ll be able to get a rather clean 1hour scale in as well.
Time will tell
Anyway enough looking back let’s have a look at my watchlist – live for the future not the past eh 🙂
Euro Swiss is the only pair I’ll be eyeing up for a potential short today. I believe that area is valid supply for a potential short.
That being sad, one of my rules is that the price can’t move sideways for 24hours within a zone before giving me an entry. So it may be eliminated if we don’t have an entry any time soon.
I’ll also be looking for additional scale ins.
Still reading the Laws of Human Nature I rather enjoyed a quote from it that sums it up quite well so far
The true spirit of conversation consists more in bringing out the cleverness of others than in showing a great deal of it yourself.
He who goes away pleased with himself and his own wit is also greatly pleased with you
Good morning folks! Some movement in the market over the last few days, but no entries so far.
NZD/JPY a pair that was on watch yesterday for a potential short dropped just before reaching the zone – so I didn’t take it.
Anyway, enough talk, let’s dive into what I’m eyeing up for today
Cad Swiss is a pair I’ll be eyeing up for a potential long today, we are approaching an area of demand (the daily demand looks strange that’s because I have adjusted it to fit my higher time frame stack. While we area reaching an area of demand we are also getting close to a trendline which already has 4 rejections, we may see the 5th, or a clear break lower which would create a gorgeous counter zone.
Whatever happens, remain patient and execute your plan.
Pound Yen is the second pair on my watch, it hasn’t really moved since yesterday so the reasoning remains the exact same – this zone is valid but so are the other two so waiting to see which one will give me an entry to go short.
Those are the two pairs that I believe could give us an entry today. Let’s see what happens,
Reading Laws of Human Nature, it’s a very big book, so it’s going to take me a while to finish it, expect to see it mentioned here quite a few times 🙂 May sneak a book or two in-between tho