Wednesday 20th of January 2021

Good morning folks! Hope all is well, you just have to keep going ๐Ÿ™‚

While I’ll be the first to admit the hours of backtesting I’ve done so far this month is exponentially less than usual, I believe it’s time for me to put my head down and get back into the game.

I have to keep working today for tomorrow – as we all do. While my current strategy is fixed I would benefit from having several uncorrelated strategies.

Anyway, enough talk, let’s dive into my FX Watchlist.

FX Watchlist

AUD/NZD

Aussie Kiwi has spent the last 24hours just below the area of supply that I’m so interested in. It appears likely that we’ll see it reach it today.

That being said, I do not like slanted price action leading to a reversal, I know the strike rate isn’t that good. I’ll want to see something more before pulling the trigger (either a clear move higher then a reversal – or a double top).

EUR/CHF

Euro Swiss is moving towards an area of demand – in the past the 4hour 50EMA has been well respected so it’ll be interesting to see if a break happens. If it does I’ll then wait for the price to reach the area of demand before looking to take a short.

USD/JPY

Dollar Yen has been moving sideways for the entire week, it remains on my watchlist, however I am unsure if we’ll see a move lower of a break of the larger descending trendline.

USD/CHF

Dollar Swiss broke above a descending trendline two weeks ago, since then we’ve been waiting to see if the price would pull back to form a double bottom. If a double bottom is made, I’ll then look to take a long position.

Daily Book:

Finished Reading Gucci Mane’s guide to greatness. It was quite good – good advice all around. Maybe too many photos of him, that would be the only drawback of this book.

But you have to respect him for what he does.

I also started reading the Autobiography of Andrew Carnegie and the Gospel of Wealth. Figured it’d be interesting to read what he has to say. Titans like him are definitely worth studying

Daily Tweet:

Friday 15th of January 2021

Morning folks! Hope all is well.

There’s nothing that drastically changed since yesterday so my watchlist remains rather similar, the only difference being EUR/CHF has now confirmed the break below its trendline and therefore created a new area of supply.

FX Watchlist

EUR/CHF

Euro Swiss has now broke its previous low and had two daily closes below the ascending trendline / phase line. I am now looking for a potential short trade once the price pulls back to the 1.082 area.

GBP/JPY

Pound Yen is a currency pair Iโ€™ll keep my eyes on for the next week or two โ€“ we are now in the middle between two areas of interest, one for a long position (a counter zone that was created with yesterdayโ€™s push higher) and a short position that was created back in Feb. 2020.

The price has a 300 pip range before reaching one of the areas I am interested in, that type of volatility can easily be done in a day or two, itโ€™ll be worth keeping our eyes out.

Let’s wait for next week for the other pairs.

Have a fantastic end to this week. Make sure you use your time wisely.

Thursday 14th of January 2021

Good morning folks! Hope all is well!

Before we dive into our daily watchlist, I figured I probably should update you with my GBPCHF trade that I took yesterday from our watch.

A short entry presented itself within the area of supply so I executed it. I’m happy with it, it fits my trading plan and is classified as a V entry. Let’s see how it plays out.

I shall be looking to take a 1hour scale in and 4hour scale over the next few days.

FX Watchlist

GBP/JPY

Pound Yen is a currency pair I’ll keep my eyes on for the next week or two – we are now in the middle between two areas of interest, one for a long position (a counter zone that was created with yesterday’s push higher) and a short position that was created back in Feb. 2020.

The price has a 300 pip range before reaching one of the areas I am interested in, that type of volatility can easily be done in a day or two, it’ll be worth keeping our eyes out.

AUD/NZD

Aussie Kiwi is also approaching a clear area of interest – slowly but surely, we only have to wait. The area of supply was created by a counter zone back in October, so let’s see what happens once we reach it.

I have included AN to my watchlist only because I haven’t mentioned it recently, I doubt an entry will present itself today or tomorrow.

USD/CHF

Dollar Swiss is a pair I’ll be looking for a potential long once the recent low is retested, while it’s not the prettiest trend line break, and therefore not the cleanest area of demand, I believe this one does exist.

I shall be looking to take a position once we have a clear double bottom and an entry signal.

Daily Tweet

Something worth considering:

Wednesday 13th of January 2021

Good morning folks! Hope all is well on your side.

Figured I should update you on my GBP/JPY position dating back late December, it’s now closed for a -1R. That made my Q4 a negative quarter, at -0.6%, glad I managed to cut losses short that quarter was rough.

Enough talk about the past, let’s look forward!

Oh and before we do that, I forgot, I created a position size calculator for FX on google sheets since the one I used turned into a paying one.
It was cheap, but I wanted to use my brain and create a new one… Anyway, here’s the link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xd_SbaxSLtvi0KCTXwUJ0-QCKg9ftLZed8YJqGFuWnM/edit?usp=sharing

You just have to create a copy of it and it’s yours

FX Watchlist

GBP/CHF

Pound Swiss is getting closer to the area of supply – waiting to see a potential reversal once we reach it. The weekly stack is rather gorgeous and it is approaching the previous high that showed several rejections back in 2020

EUR/USD

Euro Dollar is starting to move back higher to reach an area of supply, that area of supply broke an ascending trendline, so definitely quite keen on it.

The monthly / weekly chart looks rather gorgeous, keeping my eyes out.

USD/JPY

Dollar Yen recently broke above a phase line, if we see a double bottom – I’ll be looking to take a potential long set-up. There’s no clear weekly stack, however there’s a monthly stack I’d be willing to use, so all is well ๐Ÿ™‚

Let’s wait and see

Daily Tweet

Monday 11th of January

Good morning folks! Hope you’re well.

Turns out, I was sleeping when EUR/AUD presented a potential long entry at 3am. Looking back that’s not a problem, the stop size was 112 pips which is too big for me (I limit myself to 100 pips except on EN and GBP pairs).

Anyway, enough talk, let’s dive into my watchlist

FX Watchlist

EUR/AUD

While Euro Aussie may have presented a valid entry for some, it’s not valid for me so I’ll still be looking to get into a long position if that is possible. For me to do so, we’ll need to see a clear double bottom formation and another script entry.

It’s possible that we shall see exactly that but I also wouldn’t be too surprised if the price decided to fly higher now that we reached this zone.

It’s always a shame to see a trade that nearly fits your plan take off without you, but sticking to your own guns is the way to go,

AUD/JPY

Aussie Yen is another one that is currently “dropping” from an area of interest that I have highlighted many times, this pair didn’t give me a script entry tho. There’s no reason for me to be in this position as of now.

That being said, if AUD/JPY goes back to it’s recent high and forms a clear double top… I’ll be keen to see what happens ๐Ÿ™‚

That’s it for today!

Daily book:

Just finished reading Arsene Lupin once again as a more “chill” book, currently reading a book written in the 60s about an American that’s living in Moscow – thought it should be rather interesting, I forgot the name of the book sorry!

I previously mentioned I was going to read Elements of Style to improve my writing, but hot damn, it’s rather dry and definitely reads more like a text book than anything enjoyable.

Daily tweet:

Monday 4th of January 2021

Good morning folks! Happy new year, best wishes etc.

Now that the pleasantries have been done, let’s dive straight into our watchlist?

FX Watchlist

AUD/USD

On Aussie Dollar we are approaching an area of potential supply that was created as a counter-zone back in April 2018. While it may be a rather old zone, nearly three years old, it remains valid since we didn’t test it yet, it remains fresh.

That being said, there’s no weekly stack, we are forced to on on the monthly chart to find a stack. On the positive side of things, the quarterly chart does looks like there is potential to the downside, even tho we are currently seeing a rather strong trend.

While I am not mentioning AUD/JPY, it is on my watchlist for this week, I doubt it will give us an opportunity to position ourselves today.

CAD/JPY

Cad Yen is once again back on my watchlist for a potential short. As previously mentioned we can notice that the price remains trapped below 82 and is forming a rather clear wedge pattern.

GBP/CHF

Pound Swiss is the third pair I have on watch for today we are approaching an area of supply with a rather gorgeous weekly stack, that being said, it will probably only give us a script entry tomorrow, we are still over 60 pips away.

There are other pairs on watch that still need to develop themselves before being included in this watchlist, however this week looks rather promising.

Daily Book

Finished reading Dune a while back, was quite good, different from the type of books I usually read, I’m currently using Scribd to real “Think like a Billionaire” quite a ballsy title I’ll give it to you. What’s interesting is that it’s mainly a collection of interviews with successful people.

I tend to listen to podcast with them but I rarely read transcripts of their conversations, I think it’s a great way to use another part of your brain to memorize the journey they all took to get to their point.

One interesting point that’s coming out for me that I never really picked up on is the importance of being likeable and funny, you need to have a sense of humour to get your foot in the door and connect with the people. Sara Blakely for instance did a lot of stand up comedy in order to improve that skill. It could be worth looking into.

Daily tweet

Wednesday 30th of December

Good morning folks! It’s crazy to this we’re already the 30th of December!

What an incredible year it has been, it went by rather quickly in my books, I’ll have to do a year review this week ๐Ÿ™‚ If you have any advice, hit me up ๐Ÿ™‚

To update you on my trades, NZD/JPY dating back to the 2nd of december finally closed out for -1R, I have to say, the carry was rather heavy, over 10% of the final loss was due to it… I did consider moving the position to breakeven after the clear break and retest of the 4h 50EMA, however it’s not part of my trading plan.

All in all, I am happy I executed this trade and followed my trading plan ๐Ÿ™‚

That puts me down around -3R for trades taken in this month with GBP/JPY short x2 still open. That lets me know I’ll be at maximum either up 5.5R or at -5R for the month so far.

If I take an additional trade that will of course change things

Anyway, enough talk, let’s dive into the watchlist

FX Watchlist

AUD/CHF

Aussie Swiss remains on watch for me, I am still looking for a potential short play on this area of supply, we nearly reached it before the move lower, however we didn’t quite make it and it didn’t give me an entry opportunity either.

EUR/AUD

Euro Aussie is starting to get closer to its area of demand, we’re still quite far away from it, so I’ll be surprised if we get a trade before 2021, but it’s always worth mentioning ๐Ÿ™‚

EUR/USD

Euro Dollar is approaching the area I had outlined in one of my previous posts, this area is extremely interesting, the weekly stack is also gorgeous. It’s doubtful it will be reached before 2021 tho.

GBP/NZD

Pound Kiwi is a pair I’ll be watching for a potential long in early 2021, will take its time to get there I believe, especially due to the slim weekly stack we have, I have drawn it on the chart with the green box, it’s only in that area that I’ll be able to take the trade for a long

That’s it for me today at least

Have a fantastic one folks.

Monday 28th of December

Good morning folks! Hope you all had a fantastic Christmas or whatever it is you celebrate ๐Ÿ™‚

But lets jump straight into it?

FX Watchlist

AUD/CHF

Aussie Swiss remains on our watch for a potential short today. While the set-up hasn’t really changed, I just want to point out that I am interested in two area for potential shorts, once being just above the other one.

Will have to wait and see if we get a script entry that fits my criteria once the zones are reached

EUR/AUD

Euro Aussie is also worth mentionning even tho we do not yet see the area of demand on the 4hour chart, there is still some room before we reach it, on the daily it appears that we are rather close to it.

I’ll be looking for a potential long on EUR/AUD for this week, but will wait until I get an entry that fits my trading plan before taking a position on this pair

GBP/CHF

Pound Swiss is the second swiss pair I’ll be eyeing up for a potential short today, take that as you may. The area I’ll be looking to use as an area of supply will be the same as the previous two.

The fact that this level has already served as a area of supply twice, in the recent past, doesn’t put me off the trade, I’m not saying to myself that I won’t be taking it because there’s probably a lot less orders there.

The truth is, the price is currently ranging between 1.22 and 1.16 for nearly the entire year we didn’t see much direction, except this sideways action. I’ll be willing to take a short if an entry that fits my trading plan is there. There’s also a weekly stack.

Daily Book

Over the last few days I’ve read a couple of books, but I’m currently reading Dune, a science fiction book, I heard Tim Ferris mention it on his podcast and figured I could give it a try.

So far so good, there’s some nice quotes in it already, I’m going to take my time with it tho.

That being said, I would definitely recommend you checking out the podcast Tim Ferris did in December there’s 3 of the best ones he’s done I’d say!

They are all three worth listening to in my opinion ๐Ÿ™‚

Daily Tweet

Monday 21st of December

Good morning folks ๐Ÿ™‚ I hope you’re all well!

I’ll probably do this blog post and tomorrow but then take a break, it takes a lot of time doing these and I’d prefer to focus my time and energy on my family when we’re all together for once

As a reminder, I am still short on NZD/JPY, there could be a potential 4hour scale in opportunity after the next 4hour closes, well, that is if it doesn’t touch the EMA, however, the price action has been consolidating sideways for quite a while now.

Oh and when I’m at it, just made me realize, I’ve got a blog post out for you guys with Pat Bailouni, a coach, I wrote up about our session, you can find it here:

https://bullishoncoffee.com/2020/12/20/coaching-session-with-pat-bailouni/

FX Watchlist

AUD/CHF

Aussie Swiss is on my watch for a potential short, I doubt it will happen today since we’ve only seen bearish price action from the open so far.

My area of supply is around 0.678, I shall be looking to short from this level. The current price is also a rather strong supply area, I’m not trading it because it’s not fresh, we’ve already used it twice to send the price lower.

I wouldn’t be too surprised to see the price drop from here and then reverse to tag retail traders out, so remain on your toes

GBP/JPY

Pound Yen is also on my watch, well at least it was, at the open we were a lot closed to the area of supply I was looking at for a potential short. Since then, the price has drasticallu dropped.

Just wanted to point this pair out, I’m keen on both a long and a short so whatever happens I’ll be keeping an eye out for this one

EUR/USD

I noticed the weekly on the DXY and the Euro yesterday, I have to say, it’s rather gorgeous! Well, in my eyes that is of course!

It’s rather good to see how the Euro is seen as being more and more valuable than the USD, I wonder if the euro will ever become the main currency? Would be rather good in my view.

Anyway, not here to talk about macro-economics and what’s driving this or its impact.

I am here looking at a potential supply area at 1.236. I’ll be looking for a potential short from that area if there’s something that suits my trading plan.

I highly recommend you guys check out the weekly chart tho.

Actually, I’ll be nice, here’s the daily (on top) and weekly chart (at the bottom) – see what I mean? Rather pretty if I may say so myself

That’s it for my watch for today

Daily book

Still reading about the rise of Sparta, I think my next book will be a psychology textbook, I find that subject rather interesting so might as well educate myself!

Daily tweet

Coaching Session with Pat Bailouni

Hi guys, coming with a rather special blog post here, well quite similar to the one I did about my coaching session with Jared Tendler.

I was fortunate to spend an hour in a session with Pat Bailouni this Friday. Why was that special? Well, he’s a Demartini Facilitator that focuses on coaching traders / poker players (and others) how to overcome any mindset challenge they are currently faced with (as well as helping individuals to build their strategic plan.

As I keep saying here, whichever strategy you trade will be profitable if it has an edge, whichever strategy you trade doesn’t impact your trading results, rather it’s all about the application of your edge. If you screw with the process and don’t stick to your edge you’re not going to be profitable.

That’s where the mental game comes in.

That’s why I think getting coaching sessions with people that have experience in the mental game. It’s the one frontier where I can work on, but working with other people will make it a hell of a lot better.

I know I can improve my mental game. I also know, you can improve your mental game, whoever you are.

Anyway, now that we’ve talked about why I think it’s important I’ll dive into what we talked about in our conversation, if you’re interested in hearing more about what he does, feel free to reach out to him:

https://patbailouni.com/coaching

One of the challenges I am faced with is:

I know I am a competent trader, I’ve spent over five years studying the markets, the last two being full-time.

I know my trading has a positive edge.

However, I want that edge to show itself now, I want the opportunity to take trades.

That being said I don’t rush into trades, I stick to my trading plan, I’m really strict with that so it’s not a problem in itself. It still creates a willingness tho and some unease of not being in a trade.

It may be the idea of needing a salary, since I live on my returns, I need to make money every month, so when I’m not in a trade… It’s not ideal!

It creates the idea that winning trades are good and losing trades are bad.

Which is something, I’m guessing, a lot of people struggle with

Having a positive charge reaction to one isn’t bad in itself, it’s bad because that means the other one will have a negative charge.

As long as we look forward to winners, as soon as we fantasies about winning trades we’ll start dreading losses!

Every event is neutral – until we decide it isn’t.

  • If, in our perception, it challenges our priorities we will label it bad
  • If, in our perception, it supports our priorities we will label it good

It’s that simple.

Now I’m not going to say some events aren’t preferable, just not good. It brings back to a debate Greek philosophers had several millenniums ago.

To keep this article about trading rather than philosophy I’ll leave it at that ๐Ÿ˜€ otherwise we’ll probably go for hours!

What we need to remember is that:

Winning isn’t good – Losing isn’t bad.

If we are able to look at our wins as something that isn’t good or bad and our losses as something that isn’t bad or good then we’ll reach equilibrium.

The reason we want to change our mindset from winning is good and losing is bad to both are neither good nor bad is to ensure we stick to our plan.

If we thinking winning is good we will seek after winners and have FOMO (fear of missing out on the win) – this can pull us away from executing on our plan.

If we think losing is bad we will try and avoid losses – which is impossible in the markets. Again, taking us away from objectively executing on our plan.

The only way to truly execute on our edge (our plan) is to see winning & losing as neutral (i.e. not worry about the result) and just focus on executing on the process.

But if you see profitable trades as good and trades that result as a loss as bad you won’t go far. You need to look at trades that fit your plan as good, trades that don’t fit your plan as bad.

Winning or losing trades that fit your plan shouldn’t bother you. You should be neutral about the outcome, happy that you took a trade that fits your plan tho

Turning winning trades and losing trades into neutral trades

Now I wouldn’t be writing a blog post just for that without giving any tips – I’m a mean bugger but come on ๐Ÿ™‚

This exercise I’m going to talk about can only happen when you know what is important for you, would it be money, time with family, tranquility, autonomy etc etc

Now when was your last loss that stung?

Once you know which pair / which trade it was try to go back to the moment of that loss

How in that moment & from that moment until now was it a benefit and service to you?

What did that loss bring to you that was positive?

For me the last loss brought me quite a few positive things.

1- It made me want to backtest a lot more

2- It made me stop thinking about it every hour of the day asking myself when it was going to reach my stop loss

3- I was able to do my ASR quite early in the week instead of waiting

4- I was happy I stuck to my trading plan and risk management, had I not, I would’ve lost a lot more

5- It made me consider a potential tweak to my trading – which I’ll of course have to backtest before implementing it

Now let’s try to find drawbacks to trades that reach profit target.

Try to get back in the moment of that winning trade, I’m going to share a few things it lead me to do that were drawbacks

1- It made me feel confident, proud of my ability, I felt as if I knew what the markets were doing

2- It made me wonder if I should start increasing my risk per trade

3- It reached profit target however went running for more so I still felt a “I could’ve banked more”

4- I started thinking about the money I just made rather than thinking in terms of probabilities, it made my following loss a lot more hurtful than it would’ve been otherwise

5- It made me want to take more trades since I just proved I could take winning trades

The aim here is to balance the trades that reach your profit target and those who don’t. They all have drawbacks and benefits

The aim is to make them feel neutral

It’s only when whatever happens isn’t positively or negatively charged that you’ll feel comfortable

Well, I think, I’m not there yet :0

I hope all of this was useful!

Feel free to check out Pat’s website and get in contact with him

He’ll definitely do a better job explaining this than me

patbailouni.com/coaching