I’m supposed to be headed for Paris today, however it appears that the friend I was planning to stay with has COVID so quite unsure what to do, but I still have one hour before I have to catch my train, so might as well publish my watch rather than think of a solution.
Glad to see the trade reached TP after having had quite a strong pullback 🙂
I didn’t execute the scale in since price on the original trade already reached 2% which is something I’m currently testing.
Just going to drop my charts now, I need to take some time to figure out what I’m doing today 🙂
Yep, it appears I missed a trade here.
Adding spot, go invalidation below the zone, risking 3% move basically
Added spot exposure, if we break this level I’ll close my spot
Added some spot exposure as well. invalidation below the low
We are approaching the area of demand we recently created, while we still haven’t really seen a strong impulse higher I’m fine executing this trade if it gives us a valid entry (think of AUD/JPY which returned around 11R, it wasn’t the prettiest but it was valid)
As mentioned yesterday, the price started to pullback just above our area of interest, lets patiently wait to see if the price gets pushed into our area of demand and then forms an entry, there’s no point rushing it.
Remains in a clear range, I’m patiently waiting, yep, I’m feeling patient today across every pair 😀 I’m not interested in the short since there’s no HTF stack, so I’ll only be looking for a potential long from the lows.
Pound Kiwi is worth mentioning, we had a lot of sideways price action which put me off, that being said, we’ve recently seen an impulse higher, so I’m now interested once again 🙂
That’s it for FX for today (keeping 2 other pairs in my reserve to bring something new tomorrow potentially :))
That being said, if you trade the same way as I do, here’s something you can test.
Are imbalances that have less vol than the average 20 days vol valid? (Reach out through discord and I’ll send you the script I created if you want)
I’ll keep this short and just share a few interesting charts I’m keeping my eyes on, looking to add spot soon.
Happy new year folks, no point diving into all the best wishes, you know I wish you all the smiles, all the happiness, all the success and all the monies every single day of the year.
In terms of advice, I’d say, keep track of things this year.
Things that don’t get measured / tracked don’t get improved.
You can either focus on blindly working and putting insane amount of hours, or you can focus on the bottlenecks and improve your efficiency.
Here’s the review of 2021 for my investor account.
I did a small thread on Twitter about it:
Anyway, with all that stuff put behind us (I may do a post about 2021 but not in a daily watch) let’s dive into what’s interesting to us.
FX Trade Update
AUD/JPY +2.8R & + 8.5R
I closed those positions early (on my personal account and second investor account)due to the fact the next day was Christmas and we then had a weekend. I’m a lot more confident banking around 11R rather than waiting for 13R but having the option of the price doing something when the market is closed.
All in all, happy with the trade execution.
Looking back, there’s a slight hesitation I could’ve executed a 4h 20 scale in, that being said, I’m not fully confident I was awake at the time of the entry hence why I’d have missed it the 22nd of Dec
I’ll be interested in a potential long on Euro Pound if we form a clear double bottom (ideally we’d even swipe the low to attract even more orders)
Pound Dollar is also on my watch for a potential short opportunity. We haven’t yet reached the level of interest, however, it’ll be an area of supply I will be closely monitoring.
It hurts me to see USDCHF here since I was looking to execute the long last night at the market open. The spreads were high as expected, however, after 40minutes of waiting, I came to realize that it was a bank holiday in many countries – which would give me time to execute in the morning – expecting the price to move sideways till then.
Sadly, it started moving in my “favor” to the point where it nearly reached 1R over night… I wish I could say I executed this, but it was an error from me. I should’ve made myself a cup of coffee and stayed up rather than going to bed.
Total transparency, I make mistakes, I hope to make less than 10% of mistakes per year, but this is a great start to the year. Missed the trade. Ugh.
Dollar Yen is on my watch for a potential trade, ideally, we’d have one or two more bullish candles to get out of the current slanted price action and then see a clear move lower. It’ll be a question of patience I guess.
I want to make sure the price sits in my “V” category and not SL before executing since in all my backtest there’s a large difference in terms of returns.
For those wondering why I’m not in Euro Aussie which gave us a gorgeous daily, it’s because the price action was sideways for far too long.
I’d only be interested in a short if we see some strong momentum to the downside and then a reversal. It’s on my maybe watch.
That being said it’s truly a gorgeous daily chart.
I was supposed to take time off the markets, which I did, but I have to admit I spent wayyy too much time in the Crypto markets compared to the amount of revenue I am hoping to generate from it.
We remain inside a range, which I’d be surprised if we don’t visit the lows again before doing a reversal. The issue with that bias is that a lot of people are looking at the exact same chart as I am I can imagine.
A leg higher into the 2D FVG could therefore be likely before seeing a leg to the low. I’ve highlighted all the areas of interest on this chart.
I remain unsure on how to draw this chart, however, it now appears to be clear to me that we are in a range, since we’ve broken the most recent high it appears that we may see a leg higher before visiting the wick lows? Let’s be patient.
Sol is looking quite bullish in my eyes, we’re once again inside a range, we’ve already clearly created the extension to trap shorts, we’re now at the third tap. We’ve formed a higher high, and are forming a higher low. All in all this chart looks rather good for a day trade to the upside if you ask me.
1- I finalized a second investor account with The5ers (I closed my AJ positions on that account)
As you can see, I nearly reached the max drawdown so I was a bit worried at one point but I kept executing my strategy and we saw the result.
So that feels great, it greatly increases my AUM since this is my second one (this was for a 80k account when the previous evaluation was for a 40k (that I then doubled)
P.S. the link I used is a referral link, I have no idea if it offers you benefits or what it offers me but since it exists I decided to use it! One day I’ll have to monetize this website one way or another ahah
2- I recently increased the monetary value on my personal account by transferring a large chunk of my net worth in it. This made me uncomfortable seeing a trade run 6R (the scale in on AJ) so I manually closed it. I couldn’t fathom seeing that value go back to BE so I decided to take the loss.
I think you need to accept that it will take time for you to be comfortable with the monetary values when you increase your account size.
Even tho I’m used to seeing quite large P&L swings on my investor account it’s different when it’s your money on the line
3- I’m taking the next week off from this blog, so this watchlist is going to be quite a big one to cover all the bases of trades I could be taking
I remain long on this trade on my investor account as well as my personal account (I only closed the scale in).
All my stops are at BE, but let’s see if we can keep pushing the price higher
I also remain long in Gold, my stop is now at breakeven since I dislike the range
Aussie Canadian is approaching the area of supply which is something I’ll be keeping my eyes on, we have a weekly stack.
Euro Aussie is approaching an area of demand with clear weekly stack.
Euro Swiss will be on my watch for a while – waiting for a clear bullish daily candle away from the descending trend line
Euro Dollar is ranging, if we see one more bullish day I’ll be interested in long opportunities from the low
I’ll be looking at both shorts and longs for this one
Dollar Yen remains on my watch for a potential short
More iffy watch
I’ll try to be faster here, it’s less of my expertise.
I remain long on this pair, my stop is at BE, I’m still expecting the range to break higher but wouldn’t be too surprised to see a sweep of the low before we head lower
Here’s my chart, we are currently sweeping the low below the recent small range so either we’ll see another leg higher OR a leg lower. Yes I know people prefer knowing which direction I’m looking at but let’s be honest, I only execute a trade when I see an edge and I then am willing to switch bias very quickly
Looking for a potential long play here
Keeping it short for today! Yesterday was in depth!
I remain long in my AUD/JPY positions (my two positions) as well as my SOLUSD & SOLBTC.
Anyway, let’s have a look at my watchlist since I have no closed trades to mention.
Aussie Canadian remains on my watchlist, we’re approaching towards the area of supply, let’s see if it reaches it. We’ll have a clear weekly stack once we reach that level so it’s worth keeping our eyes on.
That being said, it remains quite far away
I’m mentioning Euro Swiss since I’m not sure when I’ll be taking a break so it’s worth mentioning, We may see a breakout of this descending trend (it’s currently ranging) so let’s be patient, I’d like to see two more bullish days.
Just a quick sneak peek of E/U but let’s wait to see where the price goes, the demand zone isn’t valid yet until we’ve broken and clearly moved away from the phase line
Waiting for an additional bullish day closing above the descending trend line
Slowly grinding back higher to the area of supply. Let’s see what happens once we reach it
We’ve reached the more recent range highs, that being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a leg higher to the recent high / 2D FVG.
We’ve just broken out of the descending channel, but let’s see how things go, we could see a pullback to the upper descending channel / the EQ of the smaller range
I’m keeping my options open as you can see, I can see both a long and a short play. Let’s wait for a signal and execute it.
This is looking a bit better, we’ve made a higher low, let’s see if we clearly break higher and start a bullish trend again. We’ve broken above the 4k wall which is good. I remain quite hesitant with this map.
Solana remains in the range, if we break above the equal highs and have a clear correction there I’ll be looking to add to my long position.
Once again, I entered into this trade to early, but quite happy with it.
That being said it’s interesting to note, we’re approaching the range high, so we could see another leg lower to get more liquidity. My stop is at BE.
Worth looking into this chart, if we break this recent high the 4hour trend will be turning bullish, let’s see what happens. We’re bouncing from an area of demand on the daily chart which is great.
Let’s wait for a confirmation on the 4hour before looking for a long trade.
We’ve reached the previous lows (a wick reached lower but I think the supply was found at this level.
The 4hour trend is breaking higher (we’ve just broken the previous high), so I’ll be looking for a position to take a long here.
At the moment I’m interested to enter a long around 25, please note this isn’t a trade I’m in.
Worth keeping an eye out on this, it’s been a long time that we’ve been in a bearish market.
We’ve reached a clear weekly area of demand, so let’s see what happens here.
I executed a long trade on Aussie Yen for a long, in my eyes we had a clear break of the descending trendline and created an area of demand. From there we also witness the 4hour break structure and start forming a bullish trend.
The downside being that we swept the lows, however as long as we didn’t close below that’s not an issue for me.
Once the trade was up and running we had the opportunity to get a scale in on our position with a 1hour 20BB as I like to call them. The trade set-up was obvious so I executed it.
This trade was executed at midnight on my phone due to my laptop being stuck in a windows update, which as you can probably imagine was rather “scary”
Anyway, the position size was correct on my 3 accounts so all is good. It’s in those times where I really wish I had a trade copy system back in place (I removed it since it only copied execution but didn’t place my stops directly on the different brokers which is something I want)
I remain in a long position, looking back to my entry I tried to pick the pico bottom which isn’t something I’m happy about due to the fact we didn’t close above the high, so my entry had nothing to do there in total honestly.
Which we did indeed break structure and bounce off a higher timeframe support, this entry wasn’t great.
Hence I am moving my stop to BE.
I believe the trend has some merit, even tho it appears to be ranging, taking profit here is rather a small amount so moving my stop to BE is the best solution.
I’ll be forward and say this was a bad trade.
This trade is a lot better than the SOL/USD position I took, which makes me happy. It doesn’t reflect the best trade I have executed to date with my crypto strategy, however, I remain happy with it.
We saw a clear area of demand being bought up, price reacted from that level, we then saw a change in the structure of the 15min chart which made me confident enough that we’d see more upside to execute this trade.
In terms of placing my stop loss I had two options, to keep it below the area of demand, however, if the price broke that area of demand it would be to get liquidity from the stops that could be found there, so no real points there, the added protection v. reduction in R:R wasn’t worth it according to me. If we broke the reversal on the 15min we’d be likely to see the price plummet.
My entry was placed live after we saw a clear rejection of the area of supply on the 15min
I have closed the position how that we approach the 4hour area of supply that represents the higher of our current ranging pattern. I do believe we’ll see the price reach the recent high (and even higher) I prefer to secure profit after a strong run up.
US Oil is the closest thing to something on watch for me today, however we saw a reaction from this zone yesterday, sadly it didn’t provide us with a valid entry. It remains on “watch” due to the potential it has to head back into the zone and grab orders are that be found lower.
That being said, for me to be interested in it, we’d need to break the low we made yesterday.
I’ll keep mentioning USD/CHF since we ranking above an area of demand for me, so might as well share a chart of it today when there’s not much happening!
A new pair that could be on watch towards the second half of the week (it’s not ready today).
Before looking to take a trade on this pair I’d want to see a clear close above the escending trendline as well as a candle that doesn’t touch it. Basically I require today to be a bullish day, tomorrow to have another bullish day (without making much of a low) before I would be willing to trade it.
In other words, this is a trade I’d be looking at Thursday but more likely Friday or Monday
As mentioned in my trade update, I have closed my long. If the reasoning wasn’t clear enough, I hope this drawing will be
We are in a current range that started on the 13th. I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see the price reach that high/the area of supply and then retrace to reach the wick lows.
That being said, I believe the likelihood of us reaching the 2D FVG before a move lower would make a lot more sense.
People would be bullish as soon as we reach the recent high, sad / worried to see the price retrace after breaking it, which would reduce sentiment and OI.
As long as we don’t have a clear bullish structure above the 2D FVG my bias will remain – we are in a range.
If we reach the wick lows, I will be looking to add a lot of capital. 43k to 38k is where I’d add the most amount of exposure to the market.
I do find Etherum to be a lot harder to chart at the moment.
You can notice the wall we have at 4k, we are currently breaking it to be upside, but when previously tried it was only for a short duration.
My bias will remain bearish – to revisit the wick low up until we have a clear break above and close above 4120, that would signal a potential change in the trend on the 4hour chart
My Bias was shared earlier in my trade update, Wouldn;t be overly surprised to see it give us a three tap low of ths current range before heading higher.
Adding this chart since it is quite clean, we just formed a clear three tap pattern here having broken the previous low.
The fact we broke the previous low is quite a turn off for me – however the current price action makes it interesting.
Good morning folks! I hope you’re well and had an enjoyable weekend!
Got the opportunity to see a few friends and get started on some poker content so I’m happy, was a good weekend 🙂
Oh that makes me think, for those that are interested I’m going to be “teaching” how to play poker (I believe), well that is, I’ll be creating content of me explaining poker while I move along with it.
I think it’s one of the best ways to learn so might as well!
If you’re interested (for free) message me!
That being said,
As mentioned on Friday I’m looking for a potential trade for a long here, we saw a clear break of a trend line, two closes above it, one candle that didn’t touch it, so I was looking for a potential long.
I’ve adjusted the zone to the weekly stack, which we’ve reached, and we’re seeing a retest of the trendline so it’s quite interesting.
I’m eyeing up US Oil for a potential long, we’ve more or less broken out of a descending trendline, it definitely wasn’t the cleanest set-up, however it remains a potential play. The weekly stack is gorgeous.
We’ve also broken the downward trend on the 4hour (break of the previous high) so I’m quite liking it
We’ve seen a break to the upside, however, we haven’t really broken above the high of the correction so I’m being quite hesitant. I know that on average the seasonality of gold is bullish, but it usually starts with the Asian markets and we haven’t noticed any real pumps from there.
That being said, we could also draw the recent price action as a descending action. All in all, I’m quite happy with the set-up, let’s see if I get an entry.
Closed my leveraged positions this Sunday, I was expecting ti see sine bearish price action to close the gap on the weekend, so ensuring I took some small profits rather than hold on for dear life.
I’ve also noticed (after a tweet from RektProof) that Monday isn’t a great day to trade crypto, so I’m more than willing to wait for the chart low & high to be clear before I act on anything.
I’m glad I closed those positions (aside from SOL/BTC) for a small profit otherwise they’d be losses.
If I was to share one chart for BTC, this would probably be it.
I’d be surprised if we saw more upside than the recent high / up to the second horizontal line. It’s likely that we’ll see the price reach the wick low (and even lower to get some liquidity from the stops)
Seeing a break of this descending range shouldn’t be a surprise, but it probably won’t indicate a huge surge higher.
Not the biggest fan of ETH chart so I’m not looking for a trade there. My bias is short
Quite liking this chart, we’ve broken higher, no longer in a bearish trend, we’ve reached the daily supply it bounced, all in all, I’m happy with it.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a push higher into the FVG or grab liquidity above the equal highs.
Good morning folks, I hope you’re well and that you had a gorgeous sunrise this A.M. as I did, fresh coffee, a pain au raisins and a sunrise makes for a nice start to the day 🙂
We’ve seen two daily closes above the descending trendline, as well as one candle that didn’t touch the zone so I’m now keen to take a long position on this set-up. We also happen to have a clear weekly stack so all in all, I’m happy. That being said, once we adjust the area of demand for the weekly stack it becomes rather a small zone
Dollar Swiss is worth mentioning, more so for Monday rather than today but since we’re seeing some downward pressure after a correction we may reach the area of demand quite quickly. This set-up also provides us with a larger zone since the weekly stack doesn’t require us to trim our area of interest.
I remain long on this trade as well as SOLUSD, both have their stops at breakeven and both are running a tidy little profit.
It’s worth mentioning it since SOLBTC is now at an area of potential reversal (the 50% of the range) you can see how often the price reacted at this level
I remain long on BNBUSD, the chart isn’t changed, yet we haven’t really broken out of the descending channel, but we remain above the lows so my bias hasn’t changed.
If the lows are broken my bias will be proved wrong, but I’ll be out of the trade 🙂
I’m keeping my eyes on this more “macro” picture of the crypto market, the set-up is rather interesting, we are in a clear zone, broke out of an ascending channel, retesting it, as well as having touched the 0.618FIB for the recent move lower
It appears we may get more BTC outperformance soon enough
Literally, at a point where I only remember the day based on the advent calendar, I’m a simple man.
I wrote a small thread yesterday on one of my twitters about a mental model I came across from Chris Sparks yesterday in terms of knowing in which “games” / “markets” to participate
That being said, I will keep trading FX since I have an investor account that is focused on that market so it’d be stupid of me to fully focus on one market rather than opening my options 🙂
Anyway, with all of that said, it’s time to have a look to my watchlist!
Is no longer on my watch, the zone already wasn’t the prettiest but now the price action reaching this area is rather slanted therefore I am no longer interested in taking a short from that level.
While I’m mentioning AUD/JPY for a potential long this isn’t for today, I want to see another daily close above the descending trend-line for this area of demand to be valid.
Euro Aussie remains quite far away from the area of demand, however it could reach it within a day or two so figured I might as well mention it
I am waiting for the price to reach the area of supply, however it may take a couple of days before it is reached in a similar fashion as other pairs, I’m remaining vigilant but I think we can “chill” for a bit in terms of live markets
I am looking for a new entry on gold, I believe we may soon see the start of a bullish run, the FOMC may have helped launch it yesterday. I won’t fat finger it this time 🙂
For those wondering if I executed Copper yesterday – I didn’t, the stop loss was huge hence I stayed out of the market, having such a large stop would force me to hold a position over long times and target areas of price that are rather far away
I executed a few longs yesterday
I executed this trade once we closed above the descending TL and broke the most recent high to prove a change in behaviour of the price action
In a similar fashion I also executed a trade on the SOLUSD pair
We had a gorgeous weekly stack for SOL which fit with a daily area of demand, swept the low to get some liquidity, broke out of a descending wedge on the hourly, came back to retest it (which was also the 50% retracement) and then formed a railroad pattern, which made me execute the trade
For BNB (While I’m not the biggest fan of trading exchange coins) we reached the daily area of demand which broke the previous area of supply, it was also a weekly stack so we are aligned on the higher timeframe side of things. On the more recent price action we clearly formed a range (and did a clear three tap type of pattern) so I executed the trade once we close above the most recent high (which was also an engulfing candle on the 4hour). We are able to witness a descending channel as well, which we rejected to the downside so far, however, I’m fine with this, I’m not surprised to see a correction before breaking it to the upside.
I bring to you sad news today, after being 6 pips away from my profit target EUR/NZD retraced to take me out for breakeven sadly. It’s slightly disappointing because I was counting on it to bank.
While I know I’m not the center of the universe (or am I? Is all of this a simulation eh?) I truly believe that when you really want something to happen, especially in trading, it’s extremely likely not going to take place instead it’s going to do the opposite of what you wish.
Have you ever heard of someone saying “I’m taking this trade to buy myself a watch – but I need it to win for me to buy it” I’m willing to bet the trade lost money. It’s funny I’m currently going back through Jesse Livermore book and the exact same thing happens there, when he really wants something, when he needs the market to pay him he loses money.
When we stress about the outcome rather than the process we exponentially increase the odds of a negative outcome.
Why was I so stressed about the outcome of this one trade that didn’t even look great? Because I now only have two weeks to make 2.6% (I’m risking 0.5% per R on that account so that’s around 5R) to obtain a second investor account through fivers. Banking that 3R would’ve made it more likely.
Why did I need to execute it? Easy, they asked me to close my CAD/CHF position due to their margin requirements – that would’ve banked around 2.5R by now.
But it’s easy to blame others, while it’s true that it would’ve helped me. the real reason I need it is because when I was in Canada I missed one scale in on EUR/JPY which would’ve banked 6.64R. So all in all I’m responsible for it and should’ve focused on my process more.
That’s it for today forex wise
I am also still long ALCZ, DOT and 1Inch the first two have stops placed in profit.
I’ll admit, I do rather enjoy those white charts at the moment