Tag: crypto

Good morning folks! I hope you’re well!

I’m supposed to be headed for Paris today, however it appears that the friend I was planning to stay with has COVID so quite unsure what to do, but I still have one hour before I have to catch my train, so might as well publish my watch rather than think of a solution.

Logical eh.

Trade Update:

USD/CHF +3R

Glad to see the trade reached TP after having had quite a strong pullback 🙂

I didn’t execute the scale in since price on the original trade already reached 2% which is something I’m currently testing.

FX Watchlist

Just going to drop my charts now, I need to take some time to figure out what I’m doing today 🙂

AUD/USD

CAD/CHF

CAD/JPY

EUR/GBP

EUR/USD

GBP/AUD

GBP/NZD

NZD/CHF

NZD/JPY

USD/SGD

Yep, it appears I missed a trade here.

Crypto

BTC

Adding spot, go invalidation below the zone, risking 3% move basically

SOL

FTM

Added spot exposure, if we break this level I’ll close my spot

MATIC

Added some spot exposure as well. invalidation below the low

Happy new year folks, no point diving into all the best wishes, you know I wish you all the smiles, all the happiness, all the success and all the monies every single day of the year.

In terms of advice, I’d say, keep track of things this year.

Things that don’t get measured / tracked don’t get improved.

You can either focus on blindly working and putting insane amount of hours, or you can focus on the bottlenecks and improve your efficiency.

Here’s the review of 2021 for my investor account.

I did a small thread on Twitter about it:

Review of 2021:

Using 0.4% risk per R pic.twitter.com/BKrfU9nz9E

— Crook (@0x_Crook) December 27, 2021

Anyway, with all that stuff put behind us (I may do a post about 2021 but not in a daily watch) let’s dive into what’s interesting to us.

FX Trade Update

AUD/JPY +2.8R & + 8.5R

I closed those positions early (on my personal account and second investor account)due to the fact the next day was Christmas and we then had a weekend. I’m a lot more confident banking around 11R rather than waiting for 13R but having the option of the price doing something when the market is closed.

All in all, happy with the trade execution.

Looking back, there’s a slight hesitation I could’ve executed a 4h 20 scale in, that being said, I’m not fully confident I was awake at the time of the entry hence why I’d have missed it the 22nd of Dec

FX Watchlist

EUR/GBP

I’ll be interested in a potential long on Euro Pound if we form a clear double bottom (ideally we’d even swipe the low to attract even more orders)

GBP/NZD

Pound Dollar is also on my watch for a potential short opportunity. We haven’t yet reached the level of interest, however, it’ll be an area of supply I will be closely monitoring.

USD/CHF

It hurts me to see USDCHF here since I was looking to execute the long last night at the market open. The spreads were high as expected, however, after 40minutes of waiting, I came to realize that it was a bank holiday in many countries – which would give me time to execute in the morning – expecting the price to move sideways till then.

Sadly, it started moving in my “favor” to the point where it nearly reached 1R over night… I wish I could say I executed this, but it was an error from me. I should’ve made myself a cup of coffee and stayed up rather than going to bed.

Total transparency, I make mistakes, I hope to make less than 10% of mistakes per year, but this is a great start to the year. Missed the trade. Ugh.

USD/JPY

Dollar Yen is on my watch for a potential trade, ideally, we’d have one or two more bullish candles to get out of the current slanted price action and then see a clear move lower. It’ll be a question of patience I guess.

I want to make sure the price sits in my “V” category and not SL before executing since in all my backtest there’s a large difference in terms of returns.

EUR/AUD

For those wondering why I’m not in Euro Aussie which gave us a gorgeous daily, it’s because the price action was sideways for far too long.

I’d only be interested in a short if we see some strong momentum to the downside and then a reversal. It’s on my maybe watch.

That being said it’s truly a gorgeous daily chart.

Crypto

I was supposed to take time off the markets, which I did, but I have to admit I spent wayyy too much time in the Crypto markets compared to the amount of revenue I am hoping to generate from it.

BTC

We remain inside a range, which I’d be surprised if we don’t visit the lows again before doing a reversal. The issue with that bias is that a lot of people are looking at the exact same chart as I am I can imagine.

A leg higher into the 2D FVG could therefore be likely before seeing a leg to the low. I’ve highlighted all the areas of interest on this chart.

ETH

I remain unsure on how to draw this chart, however, it now appears to be clear to me that we are in a range, since we’ve broken the most recent high it appears that we may see a leg higher before visiting the wick lows? Let’s be patient.

SOL

Sol is looking quite bullish in my eyes, we’re once again inside a range, we’ve already clearly created the extension to trap shorts, we’re now at the third tap. We’ve formed a higher high, and are forming a higher low. All in all this chart looks rather good for a day trade to the upside if you ask me.

If you like to trade ranges here are a few more:

DOT

RUNE

1Inch

SPELL

AKRO

OMG

CRO

Good morning folks! I hope you’re well!

Yesterday was a rather fantastic day.

1- I finalized a second investor account with The5ers (I closed my AJ positions on that account)

As you can see, I nearly reached the max drawdown so I was a bit worried at one point but I kept executing my strategy and we saw the result.

So that feels great, it greatly increases my AUM since this is my second one (this was for a 80k account when the previous evaluation was for a 40k (that I then doubled)

P.S. the link I used is a referral link, I have no idea if it offers you benefits or what it offers me but since it exists I decided to use it! One day I’ll have to monetize this website one way or another ahah

2- I recently increased the monetary value on my personal account by transferring a large chunk of my net worth in it. This made me uncomfortable seeing a trade run 6R (the scale in on AJ) so I manually closed it. I couldn’t fathom seeing that value go back to BE so I decided to take the loss.

I think you need to accept that it will take time for you to be comfortable with the monetary values when you increase your account size.

Even tho I’m used to seeing quite large P&L swings on my investor account it’s different when it’s your money on the line

3- I’m taking the next week off from this blog, so this watchlist is going to be quite a big one to cover all the bases of trades I could be taking

Trade Update

AUD/JPY

I remain long on this trade on my investor account as well as my personal account (I only closed the scale in).

All my stops are at BE, but let’s see if we can keep pushing the price higher

Gold

I also remain long in Gold, my stop is now at breakeven since I dislike the range

FX Watchlist

AUD/CAD

Aussie Canadian is approaching the area of supply which is something I’ll be keeping my eyes on, we have a weekly stack.

EUR/AUD

Euro Aussie is approaching an area of demand with clear weekly stack.

EUR/CHF

Euro Swiss will be on my watch for a while – waiting for a clear bullish daily candle away from the descending trend line

EUR/USD

Euro Dollar is ranging, if we see one more bullish day I’ll be interested in long opportunities from the low

GBP/JPY

I’ll be looking at both shorts and longs for this one

USD/JPY

Dollar Yen remains on my watch for a potential short

More iffy watch

EUR/GBP

EUR/JPY

GBP/AUD

GBP/CHF

USD/JPY

USD/SGD

Crypto

I’ll try to be faster here, it’s less of my expertise.

SOLUSD

I remain long on this pair, my stop is at BE, I’m still expecting the range to break higher but wouldn’t be too surprised to see a sweep of the low before we head lower

BTC

Here’s my chart, we are currently sweeping the low below the recent small range so either we’ll see another leg higher OR a leg lower. Yes I know people prefer knowing which direction I’m looking at but let’s be honest, I only execute a trade when I see an edge and I then am willing to switch bias very quickly

RUNE

Looking for a potential long play here

Keeping it short for today! Yesterday was in depth!

Happy holidays folks! Enjoy the time off!

Good morning folks, I hope you’re well.

Let’s dive straight into the trade updates

Trade Update

AUD/JPY

I executed a long trade on Aussie Yen for a long, in my eyes we had a clear break of the descending trendline and created an area of demand. From there we also witness the 4hour break structure and start forming a bullish trend.

The downside being that we swept the lows, however as long as we didn’t close below that’s not an issue for me.

Once the trade was up and running we had the opportunity to get a scale in on our position with a 1hour 20BB as I like to call them. The trade set-up was obvious so I executed it.

This trade was executed at midnight on my phone due to my laptop being stuck in a windows update, which as you can probably imagine was rather “scary”

Anyway, the position size was correct on my 3 accounts so all is good. It’s in those times where I really wish I had a trade copy system back in place (I removed it since it only copied execution but didn’t place my stops directly on the different brokers which is something I want)

SOL/USD

I remain in a long position, looking back to my entry I tried to pick the pico bottom which isn’t something I’m happy about due to the fact we didn’t close above the high, so my entry had nothing to do there in total honestly.

Which we did indeed break structure and bounce off a higher timeframe support, this entry wasn’t great.

Hence I am moving my stop to BE.

I believe the trend has some merit, even tho it appears to be ranging, taking profit here is rather a small amount so moving my stop to BE is the best solution.

I’ll be forward and say this was a bad trade.

BTC/USD +4.8R

This trade is a lot better than the SOL/USD position I took, which makes me happy. It doesn’t reflect the best trade I have executed to date with my crypto strategy, however, I remain happy with it.

We saw a clear area of demand being bought up, price reacted from that level, we then saw a change in the structure of the 15min chart which made me confident enough that we’d see more upside to execute this trade.

In terms of placing my stop loss I had two options, to keep it below the area of demand, however, if the price broke that area of demand it would be to get liquidity from the stops that could be found there, so no real points there, the added protection v. reduction in R:R wasn’t worth it according to me. If we broke the reversal on the 15min we’d be likely to see the price plummet.

My entry was placed live after we saw a clear rejection of the area of supply on the 15min

I have closed the position how that we approach the 4hour area of supply that represents the higher of our current ranging pattern. I do believe we’ll see the price reach the recent high (and even higher) I prefer to secure profit after a strong run up.

FX Watchlist

USOIL

US Oil is the closest thing to something on watch for me today, however we saw a reaction from this zone yesterday, sadly it didn’t provide us with a valid entry. It remains on “watch” due to the potential it has to head back into the zone and grab orders are that be found lower.

That being said, for me to be interested in it, we’d need to break the low we made yesterday.

USD/CHF

I’ll keep mentioning USD/CHF since we ranking above an area of demand for me, so might as well share a chart of it today when there’s not much happening!

EUR/USD

A new pair that could be on watch towards the second half of the week (it’s not ready today).

Before looking to take a trade on this pair I’d want to see a clear close above the escending trendline as well as a candle that doesn’t touch it. Basically I require today to be a bullish day, tomorrow to have another bullish day (without making much of a low) before I would be willing to trade it.

In other words, this is a trade I’d be looking at Thursday but more likely Friday or Monday

Crypto Watchlist

BTC

As mentioned in my trade update, I have closed my long. If the reasoning wasn’t clear enough, I hope this drawing will be

We are in a current range that started on the 13th. I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see the price reach that high/the area of supply and then retrace to reach the wick lows.

That being said, I believe the likelihood of us reaching the 2D FVG before a move lower would make a lot more sense.

People would be bullish as soon as we reach the recent high, sad / worried to see the price retrace after breaking it, which would reduce sentiment and OI.

As long as we don’t have a clear bullish structure above the 2D FVG my bias will remain – we are in a range.

If we reach the wick lows, I will be looking to add a lot of capital. 43k to 38k is where I’d add the most amount of exposure to the market.

ETH

I do find Etherum to be a lot harder to chart at the moment.

You can notice the wall we have at 4k, we are currently breaking it to be upside, but when previously tried it was only for a short duration.

My bias will remain bearish – to revisit the wick low up until we have a clear break above and close above 4120, that would signal a potential change in the trend on the 4hour chart

SOL

My Bias was shared earlier in my trade update, Wouldn;t be overly surprised to see it give us a three tap low of ths current range before heading higher.

RUNE

Adding this chart since it is quite clean, we just formed a clear three tap pattern here having broken the previous low.

The fact we broke the previous low is quite a turn off for me – however the current price action makes it interesting.

Will be worth keeping an eye out for this one

Have a great one folks

Good morning folks! I hope you’re well and had an enjoyable weekend!

Got the opportunity to see a few friends and get started on some poker content so I’m happy, was a good weekend 🙂

Oh that makes me think, for those that are interested I’m going to be “teaching” how to play poker (I believe), well that is, I’ll be creating content of me explaining poker while I move along with it.

I think it’s one of the best ways to learn so might as well!

If you’re interested (for free) message me!

That being said,

FX Watchlist

AUD/JPY

As mentioned on Friday I’m looking for a potential trade for a long here, we saw a clear break of a trend line, two closes above it, one candle that didn’t touch it, so I was looking for a potential long.

I’ve adjusted the zone to the weekly stack, which we’ve reached, and we’re seeing a retest of the trendline so it’s quite interesting.

USOIL

I’m eyeing up US Oil for a potential long, we’ve more or less broken out of a descending trendline, it definitely wasn’t the cleanest set-up, however it remains a potential play. The weekly stack is gorgeous.

We’ve also broken the downward trend on the 4hour (break of the previous high) so I’m quite liking it

Gold

We’ve seen a break to the upside, however, we haven’t really broken above the high of the correction so I’m being quite hesitant. I know that on average the seasonality of gold is bullish, but it usually starts with the Asian markets and we haven’t noticed any real pumps from there.

That being said, we could also draw the recent price action as a descending action. All in all, I’m quite happy with the set-up, let’s see if I get an entry.

Crypto

Closed my leveraged positions this Sunday, I was expecting ti see sine bearish price action to close the gap on the weekend, so ensuring I took some small profits rather than hold on for dear life.

I’ve also noticed (after a tweet from RektProof) that Monday isn’t a great day to trade crypto, so I’m more than willing to wait for the chart low & high to be clear before I act on anything.

I’m glad I closed those positions (aside from SOL/BTC) for a small profit otherwise they’d be losses.

BTC

If I was to share one chart for BTC, this would probably be it.

I’d be surprised if we saw more upside than the recent high / up to the second horizontal line. It’s likely that we’ll see the price reach the wick low (and even lower to get some liquidity from the stops)

Seeing a break of this descending range shouldn’t be a surprise, but it probably won’t indicate a huge surge higher.

ETH

Not the biggest fan of ETH chart so I’m not looking for a trade there. My bias is short

SOL

Quite liking this chart, we’ve broken higher, no longer in a bearish trend, we’ve reached the daily supply it bounced, all in all, I’m happy with it.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a push higher into the FVG or grab liquidity above the equal highs.

This trade is extremely low risk.

Good morning folks, I hope you’re well and that you had a gorgeous sunrise this A.M. as I did, fresh coffee, a pain au raisins and a sunrise makes for a nice start to the day 🙂

Anyway…

FX Watchlist

AUD/JPY

We’ve seen two daily closes above the descending trendline, as well as one candle that didn’t touch the zone so I’m now keen to take a long position on this set-up. We also happen to have a clear weekly stack so all in all, I’m happy. That being said, once we adjust the area of demand for the weekly stack it becomes rather a small zone

USD/CHF

Dollar Swiss is worth mentioning, more so for Monday rather than today but since we’re seeing some downward pressure after a correction we may reach the area of demand quite quickly. This set-up also provides us with a larger zone since the weekly stack doesn’t require us to trim our area of interest.

Crypto

SOL/BTC

I remain long on this trade as well as SOLUSD, both have their stops at breakeven and both are running a tidy little profit.

It’s worth mentioning it since SOLBTC is now at an area of potential reversal (the 50% of the range) you can see how often the price reacted at this level

BNBUSD

I remain long on BNBUSD, the chart isn’t changed, yet we haven’t really broken out of the descending channel, but we remain above the lows so my bias hasn’t changed.

If the lows are broken my bias will be proved wrong, but I’ll be out of the trade 🙂

TOTAL2/BTC

I’m keeping my eyes on this more “macro” picture of the crypto market, the set-up is rather interesting, we are in a clear zone, broke out of an ascending channel, retesting it, as well as having touched the 0.618FIB for the recent move lower

It appears we may get more BTC outperformance soon enough

That’s it for me today.

Enjoy your weekend

Literally, at a point where I only remember the day based on the advent calendar, I’m a simple man.

Anyway 🙂

I wrote a small thread yesterday on one of my twitters about a mental model I came across from Chris Sparks yesterday in terms of knowing in which “games” / “markets” to participate

Competence X/10
Competitors Y/10
Liquidity (Availability) Z/10

Multiple Z*Y*X you get your score /1000

Use this model to choose where you spend your time

— Crook (@0x_Crook) December 15, 2021

In FX market after 6+ years of trading I'd say

Competence 8.5/10
Competitors 2/10 (mainly smart money so low score)
Liquidity (Availability) 10/10

Total score: 170/1000

— Crook (@0x_Crook) December 15, 2021

In Crypto markets

Competence 7/10 (similar basis as FX for TA yet less specific experience)
Competitors 7/10 (more retail & new VCs)
Liquidity (Availability) 10/10 (at my scale)

Total score: 490/1000

— Crook (@0x_Crook) December 15, 2021

Think it's time for my to consider switching market & specialty.

Thank you @SparksRemarks and @EricJorgenson for making an amazing podcast that gave me this amazing mental model

— Crook (@0x_Crook) December 15, 2021

That being said, I will keep trading FX since I have an investor account that is focused on that market so it’d be stupid of me to fully focus on one market rather than opening my options 🙂

Anyway, with all of that said, it’s time to have a look to my watchlist!

FX Watchlist

AUD/NZD

Is no longer on my watch, the zone already wasn’t the prettiest but now the price action reaching this area is rather slanted therefore I am no longer interested in taking a short from that level.

AUD/JPY

While I’m mentioning AUD/JPY for a potential long this isn’t for today, I want to see another daily close above the descending trend-line for this area of demand to be valid.

EUR/AUD

Euro Aussie remains quite far away from the area of demand, however it could reach it within a day or two so figured I might as well mention it

USD/JPY

I am waiting for the price to reach the area of supply, however it may take a couple of days before it is reached in a similar fashion as other pairs, I’m remaining vigilant but I think we can “chill” for a bit in terms of live markets

Gold

I am looking for a new entry on gold, I believe we may soon see the start of a bullish run, the FOMC may have helped launch it yesterday. I won’t fat finger it this time 🙂

For those wondering if I executed Copper yesterday – I didn’t, the stop loss was huge hence I stayed out of the market, having such a large stop would force me to hold a position over long times and target areas of price that are rather far away

Crypto

I executed a few longs yesterday

SOL/BTC

I executed this trade once we closed above the descending TL and broke the most recent high to prove a change in behaviour of the price action

In a similar fashion I also executed a trade on the SOLUSD pair

SOLUSD

We had a gorgeous weekly stack for SOL which fit with a daily area of demand, swept the low to get some liquidity, broke out of a descending wedge on the hourly, came back to retest it (which was also the 50% retracement) and then formed a railroad pattern, which made me execute the trade

BNBUSD

For BNB (While I’m not the biggest fan of trading exchange coins) we reached the daily area of demand which broke the previous area of supply, it was also a weekly stack so we are aligned on the higher timeframe side of things. On the more recent price action we clearly formed a range (and did a clear three tap type of pattern) so I executed the trade once we close above the most recent high (which was also an engulfing candle on the 4hour). We are able to witness a descending channel as well, which we rejected to the downside so far, however, I’m fine with this, I’m not surprised to see a correction before breaking it to the upside.