Just a quick reminder that I probably won’t be sharing a watch-list until the Monday 4th of July
I am taking next week off the charts, hopefully, I won’t even open my laptop, well, that is, if there are no trades, otherwise I may find myself active…
Similarly, I’m headed to the hospital extremely early tomorrow which will make me M.I.A.
Aussie Kiwi remains on my watchlist for a potential short play, there’s a clear area of supply, however, we are currently rejecting the ascending trendline retest, so I’m unsure if we shall see price reach the area I have
Kiwi Canadian is in quite a similar set-up, we’ve broken a (less obvious) descending trendline and are currently retesting the trendline, I’d be keen to see what price does once it reaches the area of demand tho!
A few charts I’ll keep my eyes on while on holiday (fuck, I wasn’t even planning on checking charts, but let’s be realistic…)
Worth noting that I am currently holding a long position as mentioned previously
(Oh and by the way, I’m taking my first week of absolute holiday next week, so expect a lot of action in the markets)
Aussie Kiwi clearly broke the ascending trendline over the last few days it’s currently rejecting an old counter zone, I was looking for an entry here, however, none of my entry styles enable me to place a long order here.
Got to stick to your trading plan folks!
That being said, we may see an opportunity to go long tomorrow (or to go short) – I’ll be interested in seeing how the price develops over the next few hours/days.
We have a strong area of supply just above the trendline, so if we saw a small push into it we could expect a strong reversal.
At the same time, the trend has been bullish for quite a while and we are still supporting price and haven’t seen a break in the structure of the trend (aside from the trendline break)
Euro Canadian Dollar has broken out of the descending trendline I have drawn in, however, it remains important to point out that price is mainly in a sideways correction at the moment and not in a clear trend change area, we’ve been going sideways in this range since May, so I’m being patient!
Kiwi Canadian broke a descending trendline and is now headed towards the area of demand, I’ll be keen to see how price reacts to it if it doesn’t bounce from the trendline retest beforehand!
Sadly I didn’t execute this trade, it took place at 3am and I didn’t expect a trade to take place on this pair, it seemed like it wanted to go higher at the time.
Looks like we’ll remain in the train station and miss the train.
A part of me will gladly admit, that I’m half tempted to place an order in case we see a pullback since the set-up was rather nice, that being said, it’s definitely not the nicest looking trendline break that we had so…
Good job to those who took it, but it’s true, it’s kinda in the middle ground for me
I actually do not have a single pair on watch for today, so I’m not going to waste your time!
We did however create three new zones of interest that I’ll quickly cover to give you something instead of a blank page!
We’ve broken the descending trendline I had drawn, however, if we are to be absolutely honest, we remain within the clear sideways correction. It’ll be interesting to see what happens from here, will we break higher (or at least break the previous daily high, or not?!
Swiss Yen broke the previous area of demand and closed without touching it, making it a zone I’d be keen to take a long from.
Clear breakout of the descending trendline, we are just patiently waiting to see a potential retest
Let’s dive straight into the watchlist for the next few days!
Aussie Kiwi is currently breaking an ascending trendline while retesting the previous zone (that can be seen both a counter zone and as a phase line break, so I expect this area to create some movement. However, if we are able to close today without touching the trendline, we’d also be creating a new area of interest, so let’s see what happens!
Euro Yen is on my watchlist not for a 4hour trade, but more for a potential hourly entry, let’s see what happens
Pound Canadian is currently breaking a trendline, let’s see what happens here
Pound Kiwi is approaching an area of demand, let’s see where it goes
Looking to see what happens in the next couple of hours, I like the retest of trendline + the area of supply, let’s see what happens from here on
Let’s dive straight into it since I have over 1h45 of workouts to get done before it gets too hot! (It’s expected to reach 41C tomorrow, so yes, I call that VERY HOT)
As mentioned in yesterday’s post, an opportunity to take a long position on gold presented itself, so I executed it, nothing complicated, a clear break and retest of 50Ema + pivot level. the type of entries I like very much!
It reached TP later on (in the evening) which was nice, since it avoided any swap fees 🙂
You may be wondering why aren’t we looking to execute another long today the reason being that the 50EMA is too far away from the pivot + I haven’t actually looked into taking several trades on a single move with this strategy. It’d be interesting tho! Something to test!
I executed a long on Euro Dollar an hour or so ago, it’s a very similar set-up to what we had on gold yesterday:
Retest of the most recent zone (demand)
Break of hourly 50EMA (the retest is a tad lower tho I’ll admit)
Retest of daily pivot
Break of structure on the hourly
Retest of recent 1hour high
All in all, I like the set-up! Now let’s not get cocky, even tho I like the set-up doesn’t mean it will reach TP! We know that this strategy has a good strike rate, (but that I mean above 50%) but it remains probabilities.
While I like “running hot” – we need to remain aware of potential challenges!
While we have clearly broken the previous high, it remains worth keeping an eye on it in case a clear reversal opportunity presents itself, I believe it would catch a lot of people wrong-footed, so it’s definitely worth having a look and remaining aware of this chart!
I’m also kind enough to give credit to some chartist that like to use trendlines/phaseline and patterns to highlight the fact that if we have a rejection here it would align to perfection with a 3×3 (that’s what I used to call them)
Kiwi Yen is also on my watchlist, we did just break a phase line and we saw a retest on the last 4hour candle, I’d definitely want to see a bigger move into the zone to have any interest in taking a short, but as always, it’s worth keeping an eye on!
Dollar Swiss saw a huge drop in value yesterday, I’d be surprised if we didn’t see a bit more follow on today, that being said, I’d expect it to reach a tad higher before reversing,
I’m looking for a trade on the hourly chart. To avoid giving you the exact entry details, I’m not sharing it, but if you have 2 beans in your brain and know how to read the “Trade Update” section I’m sure you can figure it out.
Don’t blindly follow someone tho, always test!
Oil has clearly broken an ascending trendline, so I remain on the lookout for any potential entry opportunity to the downside!
On that note! Time for me to get ready for my workouts!
P.S. I discovered the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy yesterday while looking into Democritus, and I think it’s an amazing resource if you want to have a look:
I’ll admit, this is coming to you a tad later than usual, had a few guests over yesterday which meant a late bedtime 🙂
Made me chuckle when I logged on to WordPress just now, yesterday’s post where I cover the 10.8R I banked only got 3 views, one of the posts that has the least amount of views (sure it’s the most recent one but still)
One day I’ll care about views maybe, but this just makes me giggle, people just want it handed to them.
Gold has reached an area of demand on the daily chart, a clear trend line break occurred from that level, we’ve also broken the most recent low to grab some liquidity, however, I do not believe a trend change took place there since there was no real swing high on the way there, we had barely any displacement from there.
On the hourly, we can see a clear break of structure and a beginning of a bullish trend + break and retest of the 1h50EMA after some bullish momentum + retest of the daily pivot.
All in all, it fits great with my 1h50pivot entry type.
I actually doubt anything is going to happen in FX today – out of all the pairs I have on watch, not a single one is looking ready to give me an entry
Let’s have a brief look at the pairs I believe are close tho and then we’ll look at gold where I’ve got an order (I’m going to talk about it last since I’ve got a live order there, and waiting to see if I get triggered in) –> It happened, I got triggered into the position while writing this section
Euro Yen is approaching an area of demand (a counter-zone) that aligns rather well with an ascending trendline, all that to say, there’s some nice potential in this area
Euro Dollar has been going sideways for a tad too long if you were to ask for my expert opinion 😉 I’d be quite surprised to see it reverse from here since the double bottom formation is plaining crystal clear – I decided to highlight in a circle the most recent “perfect double bottom”
You can notice they were respected for a handful of days before breaking
Pound Kiwi is approaching an area of demand / that’s both a trend line break and a counter zone, so I expect to see some strength coming from that area
Kiwi Yen is also worth noting, it did break from the recent trend line / phase line pattern and did reject the previous area of demand, will we see a pullback before even more downside?
Dollar Swiss is currently messing around with n area of supply, we saw price reject the level but it now seems willing to retest the level once more (or form a set-up I call a breaker, however, it sadly doesn’t fit in my rules due to the stop sizing)
Quite a big day / week recently and a few R closed so let’s dive into the trade updates
AUD/CHF +3R, +5R, +1.5R (9.5R total)
I executed a 4hour trade on Aussie Swiss the 8th of June, this trade was only executed on my personal account since my 5ers account has quite strict margin requirements – it resulted in a 3R trade. Followed my trading plan and I’m happy with it, so I decided to executed it.
There was an additional entry on the 10th, this time, having closed other trades I had enough margin to execute this position on both my personal account and investor account. This trade entry was based on an impulsive move lower, retest of the 50EMA and pivot. This resulted with a 1.5R
That’s a total of 10.8R closed within a few days, felt great! But at the same time, it feels entirely normal? I expected these trades to be +EV – that’s why I executed them – but we can never complain when a trade turns out to be a winner 🙂
Clear area of the area of demand, let’s see how it looks like over the next few days
We haven’t yet reached the area of interest but keeping my eyes on it!
Dollar Swiss has reached the area of supply so let’s see what happens over the next few days
Keeping this one very clear, let’s see what happens from here on.
Good morning folks! I hope you’re all well and had a fantastic weekend!
Got the opportunity to go scuba diving and get a lot of exercises done, so rather happy about it!
My scale in position on Pound Canadian on Friday did get executed according to my plan, however, it sadly never had the time to reach my profit target, instead, it basically went straight to my stop loss. It happens. Not something I’m really excited about but, nothing I can do to change it.
I remain in the original position, it’s in quite a serious drawdown, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it turn into a loss today, that being said, there’s no reason to close a trade now, I know one trade that reverses out of 7 will make holding this +EV, so I might as well keep holding the position
Euro Kiwi reached the area of interest it recently created, so I’m keeping my eyes on it, hoping we’ll see a push lower to grab liquidity below the previous low – let’s be patient and wait.
Euro Dollar is on my watchlist, there’s quite an interesting area of supply below the current price level, I’m expecting the price to drop to this level before either going lower or reversing, let’s see what happens!
Pound Swiss is on my watch for a potential hourly position, there’s quite an interesting area for a 1hour position, I won’t be sharing the exact order details, so here’s a 4hour chart
Kiwi DOllar is on my watch for a potential reversal, I look forward to seeing this potential long play out for a position. While there’s no higher-timeframe support, I’m happy with that lack anyway, it happens.