Max_Sydney

August 22, 2022

Monday 22nd of August

Good morning folks! I hope everyone had a lovely weekend! (I was about to say weekly close… Ooops)

Has anyone tested waiting for a previous “counter” candle to be broken to count a TL break as valid instead of using the HMA?

An example would be EURAUD https://www.tradingview.com/x/TfIupYSY/

(I personally don’t usually wait for a confirmation, I rely on my TL drawings only but tempting to look more deeply into it)

Another example would be EUR/CHF https://www.tradingview.com/x/O5wIV6wM/

Here none of the zone were valid by looking at HMA, drawing it manually you could argue for 2, however, using the filter of waiting for a counter candle high/low you’d delete one

As always, I hope this makes you think a bit an consider how you use filters or adding them

If you have any comments I’d love to hear about it!

Anyway, back to the watchlist

FX Watchlist

EUR/AUD

Euro Aussie is on my watchlist

We’ve broken the descending trendline. broke the recent counter candle high and are approaching a retest of the TL + dip into the new area of demand, allin all I’m rather interested in what is going to happen here

USD/JPY

Dollar Yen is alsoon my watch for a potential short, now it’s quite annoying to see the current 4hour forming a potential entry, since we could argue it is within an area of interest for a short, but at the same time, it’s not the absolute best.

Would be interesting to have data on that as well

USD/SGD

Dollar SIngapore is headed (with quite a lot of momentum towards an area of supply, let’s see what happens here, I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see a clear correction once we reach it since we’ve basically been in a bull move for the last 7 days (including today) it’s quite rare to see such a long move up without a correction

Copper

Remains on my watchlist, a TL break will be very interesting for the overallmarket in my opinion

Gold

Quite bullish on dollar so I’m interested in the area of demand here, will we strongly break it or bounce fro there, it willbe more or less equal to parity on EUR/USD so it’s definitely worth watching

That’s it for today! Take care folks!

August 19, 2022

Friday 19th of August

Good morning folks!

I hope everyone is well!

Coming back from a workout I realized quite a few people were talking about their goal of being sore / fatigued after a workout –> I shared my view (also applies to trading)

Anyway, I hope that makes sense

FX Watchlist

EUR/USD

Euro Dollar is definitely on my watchlist for a potential short if we move back to the area of supply, but that will probably be next week if at all

GBP/AUD

Pound Aussie Came back into the correction and started reversing, sadly it didn’t quite reach the area of interest that fit my bias

NZD/USD

Kiwi Dollar is currently breaking a TL, I’ll be interested to see if we get 2 daily candles without touching the TL

USD/JPY

Dollar Yen is a clear area of interest as well

August 18, 2022

Thursday 18th of August

Good morning folks! I hope everyone is well, I have to admit today has been quite a rough day for me, I don’t know I’m just not feeling great, not any sickness or anything just low energy

Glad I pushed myself to workout tho, always feels good once you push through the laziness and get it done.

Let’s dive straight into the watchlist?

FX Watchlist

EUR/USD

Euro Dollar is on my watchlist for a potential short now that we’ve had a clear break of this ascending trendline

I’m waiting to see if the price pulls back into the area of supply or if we just see price drop from here – if we do pullback to the area of supply I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see the EUR/USD go below parity this time

GBP/AUD

Pound Dollar clearly broke a level of demand but is now pulling back into the range which we saw a breakout – it makes me think of a false breakout – they’re usually great at indicating that price will actually go into the other direction, however, since we have an area of interest here that fits quite well with a trendline I’m keeping my eyes open!

Copper

You guys know Copper is on my watchlist and has been for quite a while now!

It’s interesting to see what happens, we had a potential break from the TL, but it appears as if the price may bounce and reach the area I am truly interested in, so let’s be patient, that’s why I don’t trade trendline breaks as they happen, I wait for a confirmation

That’s it for today!

Take care folks!

August 17, 2022

Wednesday 17th of August

Good morning folks, let’s dive straight into it!

Trade Update

CHF/JPY -1R

Swiss Yen that was executed yesterday resulted in a loss.

It fits my trading plan, which makes me happy to execute it – no regret, while its’ true that we were still inside a range, it remained +EV to execute it

NZD/JPY

As I mentioned yesterday I had an order in the market for NZD/JPY yesterday, which got triggered

I’m happy with this trade, it fits perfectly with my trading plan, so no issue on that side of things for me, let’s see what happens next!

FX Watchlist

Copper

EUR/AUD

EUR/CHF

EUR/USD

GBP/AUD

That’s it for today folks!

Take care!

August 16, 2022

Tuesday 16th of August

Good morning folks!

I hope everyone is well!

I’m coming to you today with a question (especially if you trade in a very similar manner to me)

If you execute a trade on the 4hour -based on the pattern / candle shape and previous candles on the 4hour (I have a script that does that analysis for me)- do you look at the last 1hour close?

I’m thinking of digging into these since I believe it could have some potential to keep me out of losing trades or even reduce my SL / increase my average RR

Really keen to know more about your POV

Here’s an example of what I am talking:

Check on the 1hour if the last candle making up the 4hour candle is bearish

–> In this case it was

Execute a trade using 1.5 candle high for stop (of 1hour) – target 3:1 of 4 hour candle as usual

That makes a 23R trade

Now sure it’s very rare for the last candle to be so small, so this one is an outlier, but I’m only picking it as an example – in any case, the average RR is going to be superior to 3 by quite a lot, the question is – is it going to strongly negatively impact my strike rate?

From there we have another question, if the last 1hour candle is going “against” the direction we want – should we stay out?

If so, should we execute an order entry at the low?

If the next 1hour close is also going against us, what should we do?

Does that make sense to you?

Anyway

Trade Update

CHF/JPY

I have executed a short on CHF/JPY

Why?

We’ve reached a fresh daily area of supply, expecting price to head lower
We then formed more or less a double top before heading back lower
We are now in the 5th market day of this bearish bias (so I’m still willing to execute)
We’ve clearly broken the 50EMA – which has been respected quite well in the recent past
We opened below the daily pivot
We’re retesting the 50EMA and pivot at the same time

I mean if that isn’t spoonfeeding my strategy I don’t know what else to say

I know some traders like to wait to see a break of the 5min 50EMA before executing these types of trades, however the 5min chart doesn’t give me access to enough data to be able to confirm (or not) if that is worth – it’s something I am tracking moving forward

Watchlist

NZD/JPY

I have an order in the market so not going to be sharing the LTF to avoid being used as a signal indicator but here’s the chart

Let’s be honest, it does resemble A LOT what I just talked about on CHF/JPY no?

We see a clear rejection of a daily supply level, currently forming a nice sideways correction on the hourly chart as well

Let’s see what happens here!

Those are the only two I have on watch for today, so on that note, I’ll have to say, take care folks! I hope to see you tomorrow and tell you about 2 winning trades 😉

August 15, 2022

Monday 15th of August

Good morning folks! I hope everyone is well!

Spent this weekend trying a few more aggressive frameworks on the charts and I have to admit it’s rather interesting – now the question is can I execute them live on indices and how good is IC Markets to trade them – or would I be better to do them on a different broker

Oh and when I say live, I mean live execution, not with real funds yet! Need to prove myself a bit before putting real money into this market!

Watchlist

EUR/CHF

Euro Swiss is currently breaking lower and lower, it’s crazy I always thought 1euro would be valued higher than a swiss franc but apparently, it’s not, I wonder if the central banks will do something about it!

For this one, I’ll be waiting for a pullback to go short

EUR/USD

Euro Dollar is currently breaking a phase line/ trendline and rejecting a descending longer-term trendline, I’m willing to bet a lot of traders are watching this daily close and the next few

If we break this level and close below (without touching the TL) tomorrow I’ll be looking for a short from the high starting Wednesday

CHF/JPY

Sadly Swiss Yen broke one of my rules for the order I had in the market on Thursday so I removed it (sadly because I’d be short right now) – however, it remains on my watchlist, there’s a potential opportunity tomorrow if we are patient

NZD/JPY

Kiwi Yen provided an entry for my old script (I have a new version) last night but it sees me staying outside of this set-up sadly, kinda annoying I’ll admit I want to be in a trade that falls like this ahah

I will however be looking for an entry here tomorrow

August 12, 2022

Friday 12th of August

Good morning folks, I hope everyone is well!

Let’s do a quick overlook, since it’s Friday I won’t dive too deep, let’s wait for Monday for that!

Watchlist

NZD/JPY

Kiwi Yen is on my watchlist for today, we’ve reached an area of interest for a potential reversal – the biggest issue with this trade idea is how obvious it is, we’ve seen price get rejected from this area so many times I expect a lot of traders to be seeing it as well, which in turn makes me wonder if price won’t offer a fake set-up before running our stops

Only time will tell, heck, we’re not even sure a valid entry will present itself to us

EUR/CHF

Euro Swiss remains on my watchlist, however, even if we see a strong change in the momentum, I believe I’ll have to wait till Monday to get an order in the market

Copper

A counter-zone is present slightly above the current price action so I’m keeping my eyes on it

Take care and have a wonderful weekend folks!

August 11, 2022

Thursday 11th of August

It’s also 11:11 am so it feels rather cool right now

Anyway, good morning folks! I hope everyone is well 🙂

Trade Update

USD/CAD +2R

Dollar Canadian provided an entry on Tuesday as resumed yesterday, I didn’t do anything aside from executing my trading plan

I have to say, I’m rather happy to see a winning trade after the recent losses, but hey, I’m not here to play a strike rate in a really short term, I’m here to execute on +EV trades no matter what happened previously (as long as I don’t notice something and test it)

Let’s keep executing our trading plan folks

Watchlist

CHF/JPY

We reached an area of interest yesterday, I’m looking for a potential short, I currently have an order in the market so I’m only sharing the daily chart

Let’s see what happens from here on, there won’t be any initial 4hour entry since I didn’t have a valid trade entry at that point, so I have 2 set-ups that can still be used, the one I call a breaker (why I have an order in the market) and

EUR/CHF

Euro Swiss is in an interesting area for me, while the 4hour chart is absolutely not interesting to me, looking at the hourly chart makes me interested in it, I’m quite interested in this TL break on the chart, but let’s be honest, drawing a TL is always hard until we haven’t seen a clear break in the market structure

NZD/JPY

Kiwi Yen is approaching an area that has my interest

Copper

Here’s XCU/USD – looks good – but we’ll see what happens once the reach the area of interest, it’s also worth noting that copper traders seem to be better at forecasting the future of the markets than equities, so it’s worth keeping your eyes out on this chart

Take care folks!

August 10, 2022

Wednesday 10th of August

Sorry for missing yesterday’s post, however, this is definitely not my priority so I zapped it in order to take the dog out and grab a coffee with a friend between my run & swim.

It’s a shame since I actually executed a trade (but it didn’t stop me from executing the trade)

Trade Update

USD/CAD Short

Dollar Canadian presented an opportunity for one of my entry styles for a short, we had reached (barely) and then price head lower, which fit the bill for me, we then saw (yesterday) a daily open with the hourly 50EMA above the pivot level, the pivot within (bearly) of the 0.382-0.715 FIB range

So I placed an order – it got triggered later in the day

Watchlist

CHF/JPY

Swiss Yen is on my watchlist – I’m only sharing a daily chart since the LTF are meaningless until we reach the area – until then I’m waiting on the sidelines.

It does look promising tho

EUR/CHF

Euro Swiss is also on my watch, I’m interested in how the price is currently moving, I won’t be executing any trades on it today (except cas majeur) but, it’s worth keeping an eye on for the next few days imo!

NZD/JPY

I’m liking how things are moving!

Copper

FCHI

I’ve also decided to start eyeing up the CAC40 being based in FR I think it’s highly interesting to open my eyes wider

A lot of people are busy trading NASDAQ/ SP500 so I’m thinking, is there a broken slot machine here, that still gets decent volume? I don’t know, but maybe

Let’s see what happens

August 8, 2022

Monday 8th of August

Good morning folks! I hope everyone was able to have a great weekend

I definitely did, and I find myself dog-sitting and house-sitting at the same time, so all in all I really can’t complain (the dog isn’t from this house usually)

Anyway…

FX Watchlist

CAD/JPY