Quite a few pairs are on my watch today, so let’s have a look! I hope you guys didn’t mind me not mentioning any yesterday, but figured 3 trades recap ought to do the job!
Let’s dive straight into it?
Aussie Swiss is on my watchlist for a potential trade today or Monday. Once we have a clear break of the trendline we’ll also create a new area of supply so it’ll be an interesting pair to keep my eyes on
Canadian swiss has recently broken an ascending trendline giving us a rather clear area of supply – we are getting a lot closer to an area of demand tho, that fits perfectly with the trendline. I expect it to be rather good!
Pound Aussie has spent the majority of the month going sideways, however, due to the share amount of time it’s spent going sideways I believe it has validated the creation of a new area of supply due to the trendline break
Dollar Swiss is also on my mind, while I’m not expecting a set-up to happen any time soon I just wanted to share the chart since it is a rather clear set-up to me
Dollar Yen has been on my watchlist for a decent amount of time now, it’s just a question of when will we reach an area of interest?
XAU/USD is also on my watchlist for a potential short term play based on pivots, EMA, a previous high retest, and a fib retracement.
Kiwi Swiss offered the opportunity for us to go long yesterday with an entry order on the pivot, which is exactly what I did.
It’s a new type of set-up for me, however, in my backtest, it appears to be worth adding to my arsenal, so that’s what we’re going to do.
On top of having recently rejected a zone, we had a clear retest of the 50EMA and 200EMA on an hourly basis, a retest of the pivot, and a pullback into the 0.382-06.18 fib area. All of this taken together was enough for me to be interested in this trade!
As I was writing up NZD/CHF I got an alert indicating I was triggered into Aussie Canadian for a long as well
Aussie Canadian is offering more of a corrective pattern on the Kiwi Swiss, which may be good, or may be bad, however, it remains a clear set-up in my eyes.
While I haven’t looked into the impact of the pivot being in the 0.382-0.618fib area this one is slightly above it, it’s on my to do list, however, I still feel comfortable executing this trade due to the HTF backing
Dollar Swiss was triggered a few seconds after AUD/CAD, so exactly when I was writing up AUD/CAD – I wonder what will happen while I write this trade up! I no longer have any orders in the market so hopefully it’ll be a TP notification 🙂
This set-up is probably the one that makes me hesitate the most since it happens on a trendline, we haven’t yet really broken clean of it, ideally we would’ve seen a clear break lower before an entry, however, it was valid, so I executed it. In a similar fashion to AUD/CAD the pivot level wasn’t within the 0.382 and 0.618 FIB level, so going to be testing those factors out over the next few days!
Pound Yen recently broke out of a descending trendline, I’m hoping to see one day of price action that doesn’t touch the area of interest before looking to add this pair on my VIP list 🙂
Dollar Canadian is also currently breaking an ascending trendline – so I’m hoping for one more day of price action away from the zone before seeing it as valid
Dollar Yen remains on my watchlist has it’s been there for the entire week, I’m just patiently waiting to see how it behaves if it reaches the area of supply
Take care folks! That’s it for today!
Oh and both NZD/CHF and USD/CHF were executed on my personal account, however, they weren’t executed on my “5ers” account due to their margin requirements on swiss pairs sadly.
Good morning folks! I hope you’re all well and had an enjoyable weekend
I’ll admit I didn’t look at a single chart this Sunday, I really felt the need for a break, and I feel great today, I may add that part to my weekly routine now.
Think I overdid the backtesting recently :S
Euro Canadian offered a great set-up this Friday, however, sadly it resulted in a loss. I had previously removed EUR/CAD from my the pairs I trade to increase my average return, but over the last two years it’s been a positive experience trading it so I feel comfortable adding it back to my “roster”
Dollar Yen recently broke out of a descending trendline it’s been “stuck” inside for quite a while, so I’m keeping my eyes on it in case we get a retest of that area of supply. It’ll be interesting to see what happens so I’m keeping my eyes on this one & an alert. It’s probably the prettiest set-up for the week.
For those that are using Oanda as a data provider, you may say, “But Max, we don’t have data going back before 2003, how do you know if there’s a weekly stack” –> I’ll answer, change data source to FXCM you’ll get more data, sure here’s no stack, but I’ve noticed that recently it remained +EV to execute trades even tho they don’t have a stack
This was the only pair I’m watching for a trade today, sorry for the lack of excitement, but it is what it is, I’m going to be quite drastically reducing the number of areas that are of interest to me due to my recent backtest results.
But as I always say, I’m not here to provide you with amusing content, I’m here to track my evolution as a trader 🙂
I am pleased to announce I’ve finished my recent backtest session where I collected 545 trades since 2020.
I did this in order to maintain my skill with the market and see if anything changed and required an adaptation on my part.
Turns out, a few things are possible, a few new entry methods were also identified which is nice, since it enables me to sharpen my toolbox.
That being said, I do want to review one of those entry methods, so it remains on the sidelines for now until I’m able to review every single trade and add a few additional filters on it to (hopefully) increase the strike rate and average return.
In terms of my usual “script” entries, I have found a method to bring down the total amount of trades from 156 to 72 – while increasing my returns by 5%. That personally makes me happy, it means a lot less exposure to the market and less fees to pay.
That also does mean that I’ll be taking less trades, which is something that will give me FOMO a couple of times, but I’ll keep tracking the data to see if any changes are required.
The backtest has also shown me that I would be better off changing my scale in method on the 4hour, I’m actually planning on removing it…
Another important point I’ve come to realize is that I do not always need a weekly stack for a trade to be valid – this will increase the number of trades I’ll be allowed to execute.
I’m willing to share more information on the changes and the actual numbers and strategies I’ll be employing, however, that would be a coaching call, and I will probably charge you for it, EXCEPT if you provide me with a lot of value as well.
Leave a comment here or shoot me an email at email@example.com if you want to talk about having a potential call
AUD/NZD + 1.8R
As mentioned yesterday, I wasn’t taken out by the wick we see on tradingview (at my biggest surprise and joy), so I remained in the position.
Having finished collecting my backtest I came to realize that on top of the daily not being 100% valid, how it originated and the price action we were seeing on similar pairs:
AUD/CHF (clear double bottom on daily + trendline retest)
AUD/CAD (clear daily double bottom and forming an entry that would’ve been previously valid)
AUD/USD (looking in need for a pullback and forming a script entry)
On top of the fact we were rejecting the recent low/previous high and an old high, I took the decision to close the trade early.
Had the trade fitted my criteria to enter 100% after this backtest, I would’ve kept hold on to it until I was either taken out for a win or for BE.
However, this wasn’t a fully valid trade, so I preferred to take the win, and remove all risk.
While I personally do not have a single pair on watch for a potential trade today, here are a few I’m looking at
I’m patiently waiting to see if we get a clear break below this trend line to validate the area of supply.
In quite a similar fashion to AUD/CHF I’m waiting to see if we have a clear close above the trend line / previous area of supply
Dollar Swiss is in a “to the moon” mode, let’s see what happens, I’m waiting for either a clear break lower, or a potential break of this area of supply to create a new area of demand
Dollar Yen is just a question of one additional daily close below the trendline to confirm the creation of the area of supply. So you’ll see it mentioned a couple of times next week I imagine 🙂
That’s it from me for this week.
Time to test a few new filters for my new entries, and then I’m hoping to get at least one day with close to 0 screen time 🙂
I mentioned this week that I closed the original position on AUD/NZD since my recent testing showed a negative EV on this set-up and the fact that the daily wasn’t 100% valid.
The 1h 20 was however, +EV to hold which is what I did, however, on TRADINGVIEW I ended up getting out of this position for BE
It reached my trigger to move my stop loss to BE, so I did exactly that, which is fine, and then pulled back to my entry point.
No issue with it!
That being said, the truth isn’t as easy, the data provided by OANDA on Tradingview is different than the data I have in my personal account with IC markets AND with my prop accounts on the5ers
Here’s a screenshot of the data on my 5ers account (similar to IC market)
So I’m saying it was a BE trade, however, it’s currently running in some small profits, I had it sized at 0.5R anyway due to the error, but hopefully, we’ll see price reach it’s original TP.
Rather confusing I’ll admit it 🙂
Let’s dive straight into the watchlist
Aussie Canadian is on my watchlist for a potential short – we’ve reached a clear area of reversal. That being said, once again, in my recent testing I’ve noticed these trades have a lower expected value which is rather interesting, I haven’t yet finished collecting all the trades I want to do really 100% trust it.
That being said that difference is on 130 trades to 60 trades using the filter, so I do believe it, but waiting for me to write up a synthesis on this test before adjusting my trading too dramatically.
Euro Pound is interesting, we’re approaching an area of great interest -same analysis tho.
Dollar Swiss is reaching an area that dates back to 2019 – let’s patiently wait to see what happens, I definitely dislike this current price action
Gold is on my watchlist, however, I dislike double bottoms so let’s see what happens 🙂
Sorry this one is coming out a tad later than usual – I’m feeling a tad tired so decided to stay in bed for a while instead of getting to the screens (that is after having checked the candle closes at 7am)
Anyway, let’s dive straight into it
AUD/NZD + 0.5R
You may remember the AUD/NZD I executed on Friday – the one that wasn’t valid per my trading plan since the daily wasn’t followed by an engulfing candle (it only required 2.8pips difference for it to be valid) so I executed it anyway since it looked like something I’d have taken in my backtest.
However, as mentioned it already wasn’t really valid, but in my current backtest I’ve noticed that those zones actually rarely work out, they actually have a -EV value
So I closed my initial 4hour position.
I usually wouldn’t adapt based on a test I’m doing with only a 100 or so data samples addressing this issue, however, the fact that it wasn’t 100% part of my trading plan from the get go makes me a little shy.
The 1hour scale in however remains live, I had the possibility to move my stop to BE and let the price run, so that’s what I did.
Strangely enough, those entries actually are +EV even on this set-up, so I decided to hold on to it.
While I am not really interested in this zone, for me this zone has already been “played”, I remain interested in the fresh zone slightly below it
This pair is definitely making me laugh, last week I’d probably have said it was the best looking pair for the week, now I’m losing my excitement for it, I personally dislike when we see so much sideways price action before an area of interest, it feels like it will uncoil in a rather explosive manner
You may have been surprised to see I am not in GBP/USD for a long, but sadly the stop sizing was way too large for me to be interested in executing a trade here, so I remain out of this position. I won’t be looking to trade this area now. Only including it on this watchlist to keep you folks updated
In a similar fashion, Kiwi Yen provided an entry this morning, however, the stop sizing was also way to big for me to be interested in executing a trade here, so I remain out of the position. Patience is key. And also is knowing which rules are important 🙂
Dollar Swiss remains on my watchlist, we are definitely approaching the area of supply and saw some clear deceleration in the recent price action, which makes me a lot more comfortable executing a trade here
That being said, I dislike old zones, which is something I’m testing atm, and they do appear to have a lower EV than others.
Gold is worth mentioning today, we’re currently forming a double bottom patttern, however, recently we’ve seen those fail a lot more times than succeed, so it’s likely that price will head lower towards our area of demand.
Let’s be patient 🙂
That’s it for today’s watch!
Don’t hesitate to leave a comment if you have any questions or want to go over your trading plan / backtest!