Good morning folks!
I am pleased to announce I’ve finished my recent backtest session where I collected 545 trades since 2020.
I did this in order to maintain my skill with the market and see if anything changed and required an adaptation on my part.
Turns out, a few things are possible, a few new entry methods were also identified which is nice, since it enables me to sharpen my toolbox.
That being said, I do want to review one of those entry methods, so it remains on the sidelines for now until I’m able to review every single trade and add a few additional filters on it to (hopefully) increase the strike rate and average return.
In terms of my usual “script” entries, I have found a method to bring down the total amount of trades from 156 to 72 – while increasing my returns by 5%.
That personally makes me happy, it means a lot less exposure to the market and less fees to pay.
That also does mean that I’ll be taking less trades, which is something that will give me FOMO a couple of times, but I’ll keep tracking the data to see if any changes are required.
The backtest has also shown me that I would be better off changing my scale in method on the 4hour, I’m actually planning on removing it…
Another important point I’ve come to realize is that I do not always need a weekly stack for a trade to be valid – this will increase the number of trades I’ll be allowed to execute.
I’m willing to share more information on the changes and the actual numbers and strategies I’ll be employing, however, that would be a coaching call, and I will probably charge you for it, EXCEPT if you provide me with a lot of value as well.
Leave a comment here or shoot me an email at email@example.com if you want to talk about having a potential call
AUD/NZD + 1.8R
As mentioned yesterday, I wasn’t taken out by the wick we see on tradingview (at my biggest surprise and joy), so I remained in the position.
Having finished collecting my backtest I came to realize that on top of the daily not being 100% valid, how it originated and the price action we were seeing on similar pairs:
- AUD/CHF (clear double bottom on daily + trendline retest)
- AUD/CAD (clear daily double bottom and forming an entry that would’ve been previously valid)
- AUD/USD (looking in need for a pullback and forming a script entry)
On top of the fact we were rejecting the recent low/previous high and an old high, I took the decision to close the trade early.
Had the trade fitted my criteria to enter 100% after this backtest, I would’ve kept hold on to it until I was either taken out for a win or for BE.
However, this wasn’t a fully valid trade, so I preferred to take the win, and remove all risk.
While I personally do not have a single pair on watch for a potential trade today, here are a few I’m looking at
I’m patiently waiting to see if we get a clear break below this trend line to validate the area of supply.
In quite a similar fashion to AUD/CHF I’m waiting to see if we have a clear close above the trend line / previous area of supply
Dollar Swiss is in a “to the moon” mode, let’s see what happens, I’m waiting for either a clear break lower, or a potential break of this area of supply to create a new area of demand
Dollar Yen is just a question of one additional daily close below the trendline to confirm the creation of the area of supply. So you’ll see it mentioned a couple of times next week I imagine 🙂
That’s it from me for this week.
Time to test a few new filters for my new entries, and then I’m hoping to get at least one day with close to 0 screen time 🙂