Tuesday 10th of May

Good morning folks!

Sorry this one is coming out a tad later than usual – I’m feeling a tad tired so decided to stay in bed for a while instead of getting to the screens (that is after having checked the candle closes at 7am)

Anyway, let’s dive straight into it

Trade Update

AUD/NZD + 0.5R

You may remember the AUD/NZD I executed on Friday – the one that wasn’t valid per my trading plan since the daily wasn’t followed by an engulfing candle (it only required 2.8pips difference for it to be valid) so I executed it anyway since it looked like something I’d have taken in my backtest.

However, as mentioned it already wasn’t really valid, but in my current backtest I’ve noticed that those zones actually rarely work out, they actually have a -EV value

So I closed my initial 4hour position.

I usually wouldn’t adapt based on a test I’m doing with only a 100 or so data samples addressing this issue, however, the fact that it wasn’t 100% part of my trading plan from the get go makes me a little shy.

The 1hour scale in however remains live, I had the possibility to move my stop to BE and let the price run, so that’s what I did.

Strangely enough, those entries actually are +EV even on this set-up, so I decided to hold on to it.

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FX Watchlist

AUD/CAD

While I am not really interested in this zone, for me this zone has already been “played”, I remain interested in the fresh zone slightly below it

EUR/JPY

This pair is definitely making me laugh, last week I’d probably have said it was the best looking pair for the week, now I’m losing my excitement for it, I personally dislike when we see so much sideways price action before an area of interest, it feels like it will uncoil in a rather explosive manner

GBP/USD

You may have been surprised to see I am not in GBP/USD for a long, but sadly the stop sizing was way too large for me to be interested in executing a trade here, so I remain out of this position. I won’t be looking to trade this area now. Only including it on this watchlist to keep you folks updated

NZD/JPY

In a similar fashion, Kiwi Yen provided an entry this morning, however, the stop sizing was also way to big for me to be interested in executing a trade here, so I remain out of the position. Patience is key. And also is knowing which rules are important 🙂

USD/CHF

Dollar Swiss remains on my watchlist, we are definitely approaching the area of supply and saw some clear deceleration in the recent price action, which makes me a lot more comfortable executing a trade here

That being said, I dislike old zones, which is something I’m testing atm, and they do appear to have a lower EV than others.

GOLD

Gold is worth mentioning today, we’re currently forming a double bottom patttern, however, recently we’ve seen those fail a lot more times than succeed, so it’s likely that price will head lower towards our area of demand.

Let’s be patient 🙂

That’s it for today’s watch!

Don’t hesitate to leave a comment if you have any questions or want to go over your trading plan / backtest!