Good morning folks! I just realized I’ve posted 441 posts on this blog, holy cow, that’s a bloody long time.
Had I been focused on publishing good content instead of sharing screenshots I’m sure I would’ve improved my writting – or at least built up more knowledge, I missed out on a good opportunity there I believe!
I’m trying to figure out what type of content, if any I want to add to this blog.
As I write these words I come to realize, I need to update my trading and traveling post & my travel “diary” since I’m one year behind. Oops. Great content Max 😉
Anyway, enough about my ramblings!
FX Watchlist
AUD/CAD
Aussie Canadian is on my watch, we’re approaching an area of interest for me, well, we’ve reached it, the main issue here is that we’ve seen some sideways price action, which for me disqualifies it for an immediate entry.
I’ll be waiting for a clear move above the recent sideways price action and then a reversal. While it is true that I reduce the amount of trades I take by being so picky, I believe it’s worthwhile in the long run –> risk management (and therefore max drawdown management) is more important than adding 5/10% per year to me
AUD/CHF
Aussie Swiss broke above the area of supply I had in mind, I’ve added a yellow line to show below what price I would be willing to execute a short, that’s around 30 pips lower than where we currently stand. I’ll be patient, but I’d be surprised if I get to execute a trade on this pair.
AUD/NZD
Aussie Kiwi remains on watch for a potential short even tho I am currently in a long position. We reached the zone, bounced off the trendline we previously broke and then got stopped by the 50ema.
Let’s see if we get a clear double top or another push into the area of supply. I’ll be honest, I’d prefer to see my long position bank before taking a short, but it can happen that I need to “counter trade” myself, which is something I’ve seen in my backtest!
CAD/JPY
Canadian Yen is so extended that I have to admit, it’s tempting to go for the jugular if the opportunity presents itself. That being said, we’re breaking above the area of interest I have highlighted which makes taking a short position a lot iffier.
Stick to your god damn plan Max!
GBP/NZD
Pound Kiwi remains slightly above the daily area which is of interest to me – let’s see what happens, ideally we would quickly drop into it and form a reversal
NZD/JPY
Kiwi Yen is a lot nicer, it actually remained within the zone I am interested in so that’s an important start! I’m unsure if we’ll see an entry since the preceding price action is not something that fits too well with my script for entries. But it’s prettier 🙂
USD/CAD
Dollar Loonie is also on my watch, we are very slowly approaching an area of demand, it’ll be interesting to see what happens from there. We’re currently witnessing a lot of deceleration and slanted price action – hopefully, something more “drastic” and by drastic I mean more decisive will take place before we see a reversal, if we see one that is!
USD/JPY
Dollar Yen is also on my watch, it looks quite similar to Kiwi Yen, it’s rather extended, reached an interesting area of value, so let’s wait and see what happens. Hopefully, we’ll get to execute a short play on this pair.
That’s it for my watchlist for today!
As mentioned yesterday, I’ve started a demo account taking small scalps on GBP/USD
I figure it would be fun, and stupid, to publicly share results before I master a strategy so that everyone can see that even with close to a decade of experience you’re going to lose money while building up a new strategy
Yesterday was a win tho!
I shared a screenshot more or less at the time of entry yesterday if you want to be able to read it.
You may have noticed that there was a second entry on my tradingview chart that doesn’t appear in my MT5 account, that’s because I didn’t execute it. That simple.
We had already broken three additional “waves” of price action so I was unsure if we would see a stronger pullback to value before moving to my final target (the equal highs). Turns out, I could’ve executed it.
That being said, the biggest learning curve wasn’t that second entry. It was on the first.
]I manually closed it after seeing some reversal form on the 1min around a potential order block on the 1min, however, I had nothing to do there, my trade was based off the 5minutes, 2hours and daily. Not the 1min. I banked 1.3R rather than 1.9R due to that.
Another insight was the question, do I want to hold trades for their full targets, in which case was the equal high or take small profits and have a higher strike rate?
I believe in this case I shall by using a 50% profit target at the first area I believe we could reverse in, then 25% midway to my final target and 25% at the final target.
That makes sense to me.
By taking 50% profit at the first area, which shall usually be more than 1R I would basically get to remain in the position risk free
In the case of yesterday
50% at 1.9R (not 1.3R) –> 0.9R
25% at midway –> 0.9R
25% at final TP for 7.5R –> 1.87
The entire position would’ve banked me around 3.65R rather than the 7.5R had I held on to the entirety of the position, yet it would also have banked me 0.9R-0.5R = 0.4R had it only reached my initial target or 1.8R had it only reached the midway point.
I think this is better risk management than holding on a trade for a long duration, while the lowest risk would be to take profits in one and only spot I do believe that I could increase my returns without sacrificing my strike rate and risk management.
Let’s leave time to tell us if we are right!
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