Friday 25th of February

Good morning folks, I hope you’re well.

Crazy to think that two or three years ago I was in Lviv (Ukraine) and to know there are air raids… It breaks my heart.

That being said, I’m not an intelligence officer or someone that’s overly focused on the impact of war so I’m not going to share insights into it, it’s not my domain to do, smarter people are sharing their opinions so if you want an insight go look for them.

I have decided not to execute any trades up until Monday evening to give time for the price to absorb the news and calculate the next moves.

Having never traded the beginning of a war and not having any data makes me a little skitish.

Sure there’s a saying when there’s blood in the streets you should be buying – and it’s true, usually, 14 days after a war breaks out the stock market bottoms and goes higher. That being said, that saying doesn’t say anything about my trading style.

Capital preservation > capital gain?

That being said, let’s have a quick look since I closed a few trades yesterday

Trade Update

GBP/NZD Short +3R

Happy I held this trade for as long as I did even tho it had a negative carry, the scale in trades I took didn’t work out so I’m glad the overall entry did work out in my favour

NZDCHF Long +0.8R

I closed this trade once I took the decision of not taking new trades and I came to realize that on a macro perspective I was struggling to understand this trade. I was happy to bank some profit ahead of the uncertainity

I remain in my AUD/USD short – I did not execute a scale in since price reached 2R on my initial trade – I have come to realize the strike rate is a lot lower (and the average RR is a lot smaller).

EUR/JPY was a potential trade yesterday at 19:00 – I decided to remain out of it and wait for the price to settle up

Take care folks