Tuesday February 1st

Good morning folks! Pinch punch, first day of the month! Hope all is well and that you are all happy with your month of January.

More or less a breakeven month for me, it will depend on how NZD/CHF closes. It’s between a -1R or +3R (well maybe 0R who knows.

I know where my preference lies.

I was able to collect a decent chunk of data going back to 2007 as well which is always interesting and reassuring.

That being said, it wasn’t too reassuring since I observed a bigger drawdown and lower average return than what I had previously collected in my data set

As you can see in this sample of 770 trades that I count valid according to my criteria (I collected 1500 trades so this is a smaller portion of the total trades) it appears that using the 4h50 returns a better return and lower max drawdown compared to using the 4h20 for 2:1 trades. Which I found interesting.

Those 4h20 are a recent addition to my strategy since they performed well in recent years but it appears that it may not be worth it. I will either have to work on fine-tuning them or adjusting my targets or switching back to the 4h50 for my scale in opportunities.

Yep, anyway, enough talk that’s not why you’re here I guess?

Trade Update

EUR/NZD

I just executed a short on Euro Kiwi due to how the daily and monthly timeframe looked (on top of having a valid script entry). I missed this pair yesterday while doing my watchlist so I was slightly late to it today, I only noticed it when I started doing my watchlist for today.

Let’s see how price moves from there. I’ll be looking for scale in opportunities both on the hourly timeframe and 4hour for now. Let’s see if we can have a move strong enough to break through the ascending trendline and create valid demand here.

FX Watchlist

AUD/NZD

I dislike the current price action, didn’t take an entry since the candle wasn’t full

CAD/JPY

Just patiently waiting for the daily zone & weekly stack to be reached

EUR/GBP

For those wondering why I didn’t take EUR/GBP it’s because we’ve seen too much sideways price action, I know that on average my returns are lower on those trades.

GBP/CAD

Pound Canadian basically played out already, just keeping my eyes on it in case there’s an opportunity somewhere but I doubt there will be

NZD/JPY

Keeping my eyes on this one for a long. Fits with my EUR/NZD short bias, but sadly we haven’t reached the zone yet

USD/JPY

Dollar Yen seems to be playing out slowly and surely but without us.