Good morning folks, I hope you’re well.
Let’s dive straight into the trade updates
I executed a long trade on Aussie Yen for a long, in my eyes we had a clear break of the descending trendline and created an area of demand. From there we also witness the 4hour break structure and start forming a bullish trend.
The downside being that we swept the lows, however as long as we didn’t close below that’s not an issue for me.
Once the trade was up and running we had the opportunity to get a scale in on our position with a 1hour 20BB as I like to call them. The trade set-up was obvious so I executed it.
This trade was executed at midnight on my phone due to my laptop being stuck in a windows update, which as you can probably imagine was rather “scary”
Anyway, the position size was correct on my 3 accounts so all is good. It’s in those times where I really wish I had a trade copy system back in place (I removed it since it only copied execution but didn’t place my stops directly on the different brokers which is something I want)
I remain in a long position, looking back to my entry I tried to pick the pico bottom which isn’t something I’m happy about due to the fact we didn’t close above the high, so my entry had nothing to do there in total honestly.
Which we did indeed break structure and bounce off a higher timeframe support, this entry wasn’t great.
Hence I am moving my stop to BE.
I believe the trend has some merit, even tho it appears to be ranging, taking profit here is rather a small amount so moving my stop to BE is the best solution.
I’ll be forward and say this was a bad trade.
This trade is a lot better than the SOL/USD position I took, which makes me happy. It doesn’t reflect the best trade I have executed to date with my crypto strategy, however, I remain happy with it.
We saw a clear area of demand being bought up, price reacted from that level, we then saw a change in the structure of the 15min chart which made me confident enough that we’d see more upside to execute this trade.
In terms of placing my stop loss I had two options, to keep it below the area of demand, however, if the price broke that area of demand it would be to get liquidity from the stops that could be found there, so no real points there, the added protection v. reduction in R:R wasn’t worth it according to me. If we broke the reversal on the 15min we’d be likely to see the price plummet.
My entry was placed live after we saw a clear rejection of the area of supply on the 15min
I have closed the position how that we approach the 4hour area of supply that represents the higher of our current ranging pattern. I do believe we’ll see the price reach the recent high (and even higher) I prefer to secure profit after a strong run up.
US Oil is the closest thing to something on watch for me today, however we saw a reaction from this zone yesterday, sadly it didn’t provide us with a valid entry. It remains on “watch” due to the potential it has to head back into the zone and grab orders are that be found lower.
That being said, for me to be interested in it, we’d need to break the low we made yesterday.
I’ll keep mentioning USD/CHF since we ranking above an area of demand for me, so might as well share a chart of it today when there’s not much happening!
A new pair that could be on watch towards the second half of the week (it’s not ready today).
Before looking to take a trade on this pair I’d want to see a clear close above the escending trendline as well as a candle that doesn’t touch it. Basically I require today to be a bullish day, tomorrow to have another bullish day (without making much of a low) before I would be willing to trade it.
In other words, this is a trade I’d be looking at Thursday but more likely Friday or Monday
As mentioned in my trade update, I have closed my long. If the reasoning wasn’t clear enough, I hope this drawing will be
We are in a current range that started on the 13th. I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see the price reach that high/the area of supply and then retrace to reach the wick lows.
That being said, I believe the likelihood of us reaching the 2D FVG before a move lower would make a lot more sense.
People would be bullish as soon as we reach the recent high, sad / worried to see the price retrace after breaking it, which would reduce sentiment and OI.
As long as we don’t have a clear bullish structure above the 2D FVG my bias will remain – we are in a range.
If we reach the wick lows, I will be looking to add a lot of capital. 43k to 38k is where I’d add the most amount of exposure to the market.
I do find Etherum to be a lot harder to chart at the moment.
You can notice the wall we have at 4k, we are currently breaking it to be upside, but when previously tried it was only for a short duration.
My bias will remain bearish – to revisit the wick low up until we have a clear break above and close above 4120, that would signal a potential change in the trend on the 4hour chart
My Bias was shared earlier in my trade update, Wouldn;t be overly surprised to see it give us a three tap low of ths current range before heading higher.
Adding this chart since it is quite clean, we just formed a clear three tap pattern here having broken the previous low.
The fact we broke the previous low is quite a turn off for me – however the current price action makes it interesting.
Will be worth keeping an eye out for this one
Have a great one folks