Took a trade on GBP/NZD long yesterday, so I’ll do a quick breakdown of it, but it was mentioned in my watchlist of the day
(I’m sharing the charts at the time of entry, what matters isn’t what the price does, but if it fit with your criteria at the time. Don’t try to reinforce your belief in your capacity by looking at the results or whenever your trade is in the green or red, instead focus on your competence of selecting trades that fit your trading plan)
So as mentioned previously, I believe that this zone is a valid counterzone, we could also have drawn the zone from the tweezers, however that zone wouldn’t have been fresh since the doji triggered it. Hence why my zone is drawn as it is.
On the four hour, we can see that the price broke the zone, which is something I’m fine with, for a zone to be invalid I need to see two daily close outside of it.
There was also a weekly stack (the only downside to that weekly stack is that it came after a row of 6 imbalances, however I do not mind it on the HTF)
Anyway…. Let’s get started
On top of having my 4h entry, I have two additional entries available to me, I’ll be looking to take a scale in on this position once the price breaks above the 50EMA. That’s one of my scale in. The second one, is a classical break and retest of the 4h 50EMA.
These two scale in strategies, aren’t very complicated, more a question of trend following, which is why selecting the right original entries are key to me
The daily and 4hour chart hasn’t really moved, compared to yesterday (and the chart above) so not going to add the chart here again
Now onto GBP/CAD – I really like this demand zone, it’s very clear and has a weekly stack. I’m now just waiting for the price to enter the zone and give me an entry signal.
As mentioned yesterday, there was a potential entry, on Friday, however the 4hour did not fulfil every single criteria I had, it misses one, so I stayed on the side-lines.
Having that extra criteria reduces my long term returns, so it was hard to resist, however I use that extra criteria to increase my strike rate (which makes it go from 53 to 56%) as well as my average return (from 0,99% to 1,2%)
I now fully well that to take this position I’ll probably end up having GBP/NZD as a loss, but in anyway, my bias remains bullish for GBP pairs until these key levels are broken
USD/CHF is another pair I have on my watch.
While the real trendline hasn’t been broke (as of yet) we did have a clear phase line that served as a trendline, it fits my criteria of a trendline since it covers more than 15candles and has 3 lower lows and 2 lower high.
If the price action reaches inside this zone I’ll be looking for a potential trade entry
The main downside to this position is the HTF stack, however it dates back to 2014, so before the 2015 flash crash, which means the price did break this zone. Knowing that, it makes me hesitate.
I’ve finished reading, “How to Think Like a Roman Emperor” by Donald Robertson
And I’m now reading a fiction novel, so no need to share that, however, I’ll keep sharing parts of “How to Think Like a Roman Emperor until I finish my current “relax book”
We usually think of rhetoric as something used to manipulate other people. We tend to forget we’re doing it to ourselves as well, not only when we speak but also when we use language to think.
The Stoics were certainly interested in how our words affect others. However, their priority was to change the way we affect ourselves, our own thoughts and feelings, through our choice of language.
We exaggerate, overgeneralize, omit information, and use strong language and colorful metaphors: “She’s always being a bitch!” “That bastard shot me down in flames!” “This job is complete bullshit!”
People tend to think that exclamations like these are a natural consequence of strong emotions like anger. But what if they’re also causing or perpetuating our emotions?