You don’t really trade the market

Everyone thinks that we trade the market we’re invested in, would that be FX, commodities, stocks etc etc

But is that the case? I mean a market is a market, it’s nothing at all.

It’s not as if you go to a counter and ask for two dozens oysters and some nice smelly cheese, that’s something we can eat and enjoy.

No, we only trade our beliefs.

Currencies are only worth X because of the belief/trust we have that they are worth that much, because someone told us it was the case.

Trading is only a matter of showing our belief that a currency is going to become more valuable / trustworthy for others

Don’t focus on trying to understand how a market moves, it’s only the sum of all the beliefs of the participants.

Instead, try to understand how you come to believe something, and how others change their minds.

If you’re able to understand a change in the mind of the other traders/investors before it takes place you’ll be well off.

You don’t really trade the market. You trade your beliefs about the market. 

~ Van Tharp

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